Gavin Williams has hit the strikeout under in 53.8% of games with a -0.8 differential from his typical 5.04 line. The 6-7-0 over/under record and negative ROI on overs suggests consistent underperformance in strikeout props, making unders the preferred play.
Expert Analysis
Williams' strikeout struggles stem from command issues that have plagued him since his MLB debut. The 4.23 average against a 5.04 line represents a meaningful 16% shortfall that reflects his tendency to work behind in counts and issue walks, limiting his ability to attack hitters aggressively. Young pitchers often see inflated strikeout lines based on minor league numbers or small sample hot streaks, but Williams' 13-game sample shows consistent underperformance that suggests books haven't fully adjusted. His longest under streak of three games indicates he can go cold for extended periods, while his maximum over streak of just two games shows limited ceiling. The +2.8% ROI on unders versus -11.9% on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Williams' development timeline suggests this pattern may persist as he focuses on command and pitch efficiency over swing-and-miss stuff. The lack of split data actually strengthens the case, as it indicates consistent underperformance regardless of opponent or situation. For a pitcher still finding his footing in the majors, betting unders capitalizes on books potentially overvaluing his strikeout upside while he prioritizes getting outs over missing bats.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.8% under rate combined with consistent negative differential creates value on Williams strikeout unders. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward for his command-first approach. Primary risk is a breakout performance as his stuff develops, but current data supports continued underperformance until he proves otherwise.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gavin Williams's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Williams has gone 6-7-0 on strikeout overs across 13 games, hitting under 53.8% of the time. His 4.23 average falls short of typical 5.04 lines by 0.8 strikeouts per game, showing consistent underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gavin Williams Strikeouts all games?
Bet under on Williams strikeout props. The 53.8% under rate and -0.8 differential from lines creates value, especially with +2.8% ROI on unders versus -11.9% losses on overs showing clear market inefficiency.
What's Gavin Williams's average Strikeouts all games?
Williams averages 4.23 strikeouts per game compared to his typical 5.04 line, creating a -0.8 differential. This 16% shortfall reflects his command-first approach that prioritizes contact management over swing-and-miss stuff.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams strikeout unders when lines are set at 5+ strikeouts, as his 4.23 average creates maximum value. His command issues are most exploitable against patient lineups that work deep counts.