Gavin Stone has delivered modest over value in his strikeout props, hitting the over in 6 of 10 games (60%) with a +14.6% ROI. His 4.8 average exceeds typical lines by just 0.2 strikeouts, suggesting a lean over approach rather than aggressive betting.
Expert Analysis
Stone's 60% over rate reflects a pitcher finding his groove in the majors, consistently exceeding modest expectations set by oddsmakers. The +0.2 differential between his 4.8 average and typical 4.6 lines indicates books are slightly undervaluing his strikeout upside, though not dramatically. This edge stems from Stone's improved command and the Dodgers' patient approach to developing young arms, allowing him to work deeper into games when effective. The modest 14.6% ROI on overs suggests sustainable value rather than variance-driven results. However, the sample spans over two months, raising questions about consistency as opposing hitters adjust to his repertoire. Stone's strikeout ceiling remains limited compared to elite arms, making him more of a steady floor play than a ceiling crusher. The lack of dramatic splits data suggests his performance has been relatively consistent across different conditions, which supports the over lean but also indicates limited explosive upside. Regression risk exists if his command wavers or if teams begin sitting on his preferred sequences.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Stone's consistent ability to exceed modest strikeout lines by 0.2 per game creates sustainable value, especially when books set lines at 4.5 or below. The 60% hit rate with positive ROI indicates genuine edge rather than lucky variance. Primary risk is his limited ceiling against patient lineups, making this more of a steady grind play than a high-conviction smash.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gavin Stone's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Stone has hit the over in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) with a 4-4 under record. His overs have generated a +14.6% ROI while unders have lost -23.6%, showing clear directional edge toward the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gavin Stone Strikeouts last 10 games?
Lean over on Stone's strikeout props. His 4.8 average consistently beats typical 4.6 lines, and the 60% over rate with positive ROI indicates sustainable edge. Best value comes when books set lines at 4.5 or below.
What's Gavin Stone's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Stone averages 4.8 strikeouts over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 4.6, creating a +0.2 differential. This modest but consistent edge has translated to profitable over betting with 14.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stone strikeout overs when lines are set at 4.5 or below, maximizing the value from his 4.8 average. Avoid when facing patient, low-strikeout lineups or when he's coming off multiple high-pitch outings that might limit his workload.