Gavin Sheets has been a consistent under performer in total bases at home, hitting the over just 37.5% of the time across 32 games with a brutal -0.3 differential from his typical line. The under has delivered a solid 19.3% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged 28.4%, making this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Sheets struggling to meet expectations in the friendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Field. His 1.31 average total bases at home falls meaningfully short of his typical 1.62 line, creating consistent value on the under. This isn't a small sample fluke — 32 games provides substantial data, and the trend has persisted across multiple seasons from 2023 into 2024. The -28.4% ROI on overs indicates books haven't fully adjusted their lines to reflect Sheets's home struggles, while under bettors have been rewarded with nearly 20% returns. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency — while Sheets has managed a few hot streaks (longest over run of 4 games), he's also shown extended cold periods with under streaks reaching 3 games. The White Sox's offensive environment at home appears to suppress his power numbers, whether due to wind patterns, dimensions, or simple comfort level. With no significant split data suggesting situational advantages for overs, and recent form data unavailable to suggest a turnaround, this trend appears sustainable. The fact that he's currently on a modest 1-game over streak actually presents an opportunity, as regression toward his established home pattern seems likely.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Sheets's home total bases props offer consistent value on the under side, with his 1.31 average sitting well below typical lines and delivering profitable returns. The 37.5% over rate across 32 games isn't a fluke — it represents a genuine home field disadvantage for his power production. Target this when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, and avoid when he's coming off multiple consecutive under games, as short-term variance could create temporary over value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 6.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gavin Sheets's Total Bases prop record home games?
Gavin Sheets has gone over his total bases prop in just 12 of 32 home games (37.5%) from May 2023 through September 2024, with 20 unders. His home record shows consistent struggles meeting expectations at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gavin Sheets Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Gavin Sheets's total bases at home. The data strongly supports this with a 19.3% ROI on unders versus -28.4% on overs. His 1.31 home average consistently falls short of typical lines around 1.6.
What's Gavin Sheets's average Total Bases home games?
Gavin Sheets averages 1.31 total bases in home games, which runs 0.31 bases below his typical line of 1.62. This significant differential has created consistent value on the under across a substantial 32-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gavin Sheets total bases unders at home when lines are 1.5 or higher, especially after he records an over performance. Avoid betting after multiple consecutive unders, as short-term variance might temporarily favor the over.