Freddie Freeman's Total Bases props as a favorite present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.0% overs across 10 games with a significant -1.1 average differential. The veteran first baseman averages 1.9 total bases against a typical 3.0 line, generating +14.6% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's underperformance in Total Bases props when the Dodgers are favored reveals a fascinating pattern tied to game script and approach. When Los Angeles enters as favorites, they often face weaker pitching that allows for patient at-bats and selective swinging, but Freeman's disciplined approach can work against accumulating total bases. His 1.9 average suggests he's taking walks and working counts rather than hunting for extra-base hits. The -1.1 differential indicates oddsmakers may be overvaluing his consistent production without accounting for how favorable game scripts affect his aggression. Freeman's current two-game under streak aligns with this pattern, and the 60% under rate demonstrates meaningful edge potential. The veteran's approach becomes more conservative when the team doesn't need offensive heroics, leading to more singles and walks rather than the doubles and triples that drive total bases props over. This trend appears sustainable given Freeman's baseball IQ and the Dodgers' deep lineup that reduces individual pressure in favorable matchups.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 40% over rate and -1.1 average differential when the Dodgers are favored creates legitimate value on under bets. The ideal conditions are games where Los Angeles is a moderate to heavy favorite against weaker pitching, as Freeman tends to take a more patient approach. The main risk is a breakout multi-hit game that could quickly swing the numbers, but the sample size and consistency suggest sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Total Bases prop record as favorite?
Freeman's Total Bases record as a favorite shows 4 overs and 6 unders across 10 games, hitting just 40.0% overs. This translates to a -23.6% ROI on over bets while under bets generated +14.6% ROI during this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Total Bases as favorite?
Bet under on Freeman's Total Bases when the Dodgers are favored. His 1.9 average against typical 3.0 lines creates clear value, with unders hitting 60% of the time and generating positive ROI in favorable game scripts.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Total Bases as favorite?
Freeman averages 1.9 Total Bases as a favorite, significantly below the typical 3.0 line for a -1.1 differential. This gap suggests oddsmakers overvalue his production in favorable game situations where he takes a more patient approach.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman Total Bases unders when the Dodgers are moderate to heavy favorites against weaker pitching staffs. These game scripts encourage patient at-bats and selective swinging, reducing his extra-base hit frequency and total bases accumulation.