Freddie Freeman's Total Bases prop away from home presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 37.2% overs across 43 games with a massive -0.6 differential versus the typical line. The Dodgers first baseman averages only 1.81 total bases on the road, delivering a profitable 19.9% ROI for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's road struggles with Total Bases stem from a perfect storm of factors that make this one of the season's most reliable under plays. The veteran first baseman's 1.81 road average sits significantly below his typical 2.43 line, creating consistent value for under bettors who've capitalized on a 19.9% ROI. This isn't a small sample fluke—43 games provide substantial evidence of a legitimate pattern. Freeman's road performance likely reflects the cumulative impact of travel fatigue, unfamiliar ballpark dimensions, and altered timing against opposing pitching staffs he sees less frequently. The consistency is remarkable, with Freeman managing just a 37.2% over rate despite bookmakers being slow to adjust lines downward. His longest under streak reached seven games, demonstrating the persistence of this trend. While Freeman remains a quality hitter, the road environment consistently caps his extra-base production. The -29.0% ROI for over bettors tells the complete story—this is a systematic disadvantage that sharp bettors have exploited all season. With no recent regression toward his typical standards, this pattern shows every sign of continuing through the remainder of the campaign.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's road Total Bases props offer consistent value with a 19.9% ROI backing under bets across 43 games. The -0.6 differential between his 1.81 road average and typical 2.43 lines creates recurring opportunities. Target this play in neutral or pitcher-friendly ballparks where Freeman's power is further suppressed. Main risk is potential line adjustments if bookmakers finally recognize this pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Total Bases prop record away games?
Freeman's Total Bases prop record in away games is 16-27-0 over/under, hitting just 37.2% overs across 43 games. This represents one of the season's most consistent under trends for a star player.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Freeman's Total Bases props in away games. The data strongly supports this with a 19.9% ROI for under bets and only 37.2% overs across 43 games this season.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Total Bases away games?
Freeman averages 1.81 total bases in away games, sitting 0.6 bases below his typical prop line of 2.43. This significant gap creates consistent value for under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman's Total Bases unders in road games at pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality opposing pitching staffs. Avoid when he's facing weak road pitching in hitter-friendly environments like Coors Field.