Freddie Freeman's home run props at Dodger Stadium present one of baseball's most reliable under bets, hitting just 20.0% overs across 40 games with a devastating -61.8% over ROI. The veteran first baseman averages 0.2 home runs per home game against 0.5 lines, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home run struggles at Dodger Stadium reflect both ballpark characteristics and his evolving offensive profile as he enters his mid-30s. The spacious dimensions and marine layer at Chavez Ravine suppress power numbers, particularly for left-handed hitters like Freeman who must overcome the 330-foot left field line and deeper power alleys. His 0.2 home run average at home represents a significant departure from his career power baseline, suggesting the combination of age-related decline and unfavorable home conditions creates a perfect storm for under bettors. The 13-game under streak within this sample demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his 20.0% over rate indicates books haven't fully adjusted lines to reflect his diminished home power. Freeman's approach has shifted toward contact and situational hitting, making him less likely to sell out for power in favorable counts. The -0.3 differential between his actual production and typical lines represents substantial market inefficiency, particularly given the large sample size spanning over a full season of home games.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's home run props at Dodger Stadium offer exceptional value with a proven 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI. The combination of ballpark suppression, age-related power decline, and consistently inflated lines creates a sustainable edge. Target this bet when lines sit at 0.5, as Freeman's 0.2 average provides significant cushion. The primary risk involves random variance or lineup protection changes, but the trend's consistency over 40 games suggests strong persistence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs prop record home games?
Freeman's home run props at Dodger Stadium show an 8-32 over/under record (20.0% overs) across 40 games from August 2023 through September 2024, making it one of baseball's most reliable under trends with exceptional consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Freeman's 20.0% over rate and +52.7% under ROI at home games represent exceptional value, driven by ballpark suppression and age-related power decline that books haven't fully adjusted for.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Home Runs home games?
Freeman averages 0.2 home runs per home game compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a significant -0.3 differential. This gap between production and betting lines represents substantial market inefficiency favoring under bettors consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman's home run unders when lines are set at 0.5, particularly in day games when Dodger Stadium's marine layer is strongest. Avoid when he faces extreme flyball pitchers or in potential blowout scenarios.