Freddie Freeman's road home run struggles present an exceptional betting edge, hitting just 15.6% overs with a devastating -70.3% ROI for over bettors. His 0.16 average sits 0.43 runs below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders with +61.2% returns.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's road power outage represents one of the most reliable trends in baseball props, with his 7-38 over/under record painting a stark picture of diminished production away from Dodger Stadium. The 0.16 home run average away from home tells the story of a hitter whose power stroke fundamentally changes on the road, likely due to varying ballpark dimensions, atmospheric conditions, and the psychological comfort of familiar surroundings. This isn't a small sample fluke—45 games provide substantial evidence of a persistent pattern. The trend's strength lies in its consistency, evidenced by a 10-game under streak and current three-game under run. Freeman's road struggles appear structural rather than streaky, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to this dramatic split. The -0.43 differential between his actual production and typical lines indicates oddsmakers are pricing him closer to his overall season numbers rather than his road-specific performance. This creates a systematic edge for sharp bettors willing to fade Freeman's power in hostile environments. The 61.2% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a winning trend—it's a profitable one that has consistently beaten the juice.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's road home run production is fundamentally broken, creating a systematic edge that the market hasn't corrected. Target this bet in any road venue, especially pitcher-friendly parks or high-altitude locations where his swing timing might be further disrupted. The primary risk is a random hot streak, but the 10-game under streak suggests even variance hasn't helped over bettors lately.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs prop record away games?
Freeman's home run prop record in away games is a dismal 7-38-0 over/under, hitting just 15.6% overs across 45 road contests. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in baseball this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Home Runs away games?
Bet the UNDER on Freeman's home run props in away games with high confidence. The 61.2% ROI and 84.4% under rate create exceptional value that the market hasn't properly adjusted for yet.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Home Runs away games?
Freeman averages just 0.16 home runs per away game, sitting 0.43 runs below typical betting lines of 0.59. This massive gap between production and market pricing creates consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman home run unders in any road venue, particularly pitcher-friendly ballparks. Avoid during hot streaks, though his longest over streak was just one game, showing remarkable consistency in the trend.