Freeman's home hits props show a modest 55.3% over rate across 38 games, with his 1.16 average sitting just 0.08 hits above the typical 1.08 line. The +5.5% ROI on overs suggests legitimate value, though the edge is narrow. Lean Over on favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home hitting advantage stems from his comfort at Dodger Stadium, where the familiar sight lines and consistent conditions allow his disciplined approach to flourish. The veteran first baseman has posted 21 overs against 17 unders at home, generating a respectable 1.16 hits per game average that consistently beats the standard 1.08 line by nearly a tenth of a hit. This differential might seem small, but it represents meaningful value over a full season. Freeman's plate discipline remains elite in his home environment, working counts effectively and finding gaps in the spacious Dodger Stadium dimensions. The positive ROI on overs (+5.5%) validates this trend isn't just variance, while the negative under ROI (-14.6%) shows books may be undervaluing his home consistency. However, the recent two-game under streak serves as a reminder that even reliable trends face natural regression. Freeman's age and the grind of a full season could impact his home dominance, particularly in day games after night games where fatigue becomes a factor. The narrow margin for error means unfavorable matchups against elite pitching can quickly flip the value proposition.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 1.16 home average beating the 1.08 line by 7.4% creates legitimate value, supported by positive ROI data. Target games against right-handed pitching where Freeman historically performs better, and avoid elite strikeout artists who can limit his contact rate. The edge exists but requires selective application.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Hits prop record home games?
Freeman has gone over his hits prop in 21 of 38 home games (55.3%) while staying under 17 times. This translates to a modest but consistent edge, with his home performance slightly favoring overs over the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Hits home games?
Lean over on Freeman's home hits props, but be selective. His 1.16 average beats the typical 1.08 line, creating value. Target favorable matchups against right-handed pitching and avoid elite strikeout artists who limit his contact opportunities.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Hits home games?
Freeman averages 1.16 hits per home game compared to the standard 1.08 line, creating a 0.08 hit advantage. This 7.4% edge above the line has generated positive ROI for over bettors throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman's hits props in home games against right-handed pitching where he historically performs better. Avoid day games after night games due to potential fatigue, and skip matchups against elite strikeout pitchers who limit contact rates.