Freddie Freeman's hits prop shows a clear underdog edge with just 43.4% overs across 83 games, averaging 1.12 hits against a typical 1.28 line. The -0.16 differential creates consistent value on unders, delivering +8.1% ROI compared to -17.2% on overs. Lean under.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's hits prop reveals a fascinating disconnect between reputation and reality. The Dodgers first baseman consistently falls short of inflated lines, hitting the under at a 56.6% clip over nearly a full season sample. This isn't about Freeman declining—he's still productive—but rather about bookmakers overvaluing his hit-getting ability relative to modern baseball's strikeout environment. Freeman's 1.12 average sits meaningfully below the standard 1.28 line, creating a -0.16 edge that compounds over time. The 8-game under streak in his profile suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic mispricing. Freeman's patient approach and willingness to work deep counts can lead to quality at-bats that don't always translate to hits, especially against elite pitching staffs the Dodgers regularly face. The +8.1% under ROI validates this edge, while the brutal -17.2% over ROI warns against chasing his name value. With no significant splits showing over-performance in specific conditions, this appears to be a persistent market inefficiency rather than a situational edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 43.4% over rate and -0.16 differential create consistent value on unders, validated by the +8.1% ROI. The sample size of 83 games provides statistical significance, while the current 2-game under streak aligns with the broader trend. Main risk is variance in small samples, but the underlying metrics support continued under betting when lines stay elevated around 1.25+.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Hits prop record all games?
Freeman's hits prop record stands at 36-47 over 83 games, hitting the over just 43.4% of the time. This translates to 36 overs against 47 unders, showing consistent line inflation by bookmakers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Hits all games?
Bet under on Freeman's hits props. The data strongly supports unders with a +8.1% ROI compared to -17.2% losses on overs. His 1.12 average consistently falls short of typical 1.25+ lines.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Hits all games?
Freeman averages 1.12 hits per game across 83 games, sitting 0.16 hits below the standard 1.28 line. This meaningful gap creates the foundation for profitable under betting over time.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Freeman hits unders when lines are set at 1.25 or higher. The edge is strongest in all game situations, as no splits show conditions where he consistently exceeds expectations.