Francisco Lindor's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity, with the shortstop hitting over just 38.3% of the time across 81 games. His 1.94 average sits 0.4 bases below the typical 2.34 line, generating a strong +17.9% ROI on unders versus a brutal -26.9% loss rate on overs.
Expert Analysis
The mathematics behind Lindor's total bases struggles reveal a player consistently overvalued by oddsmakers. His 31-50 over/under record translates to books setting lines roughly 17% too high, creating systematic value on the under. The -0.4 differential between his actual performance (1.94) and the standard line (2.34) represents a meaningful gap that suggests either declining power output or books slow to adjust to his evolving profile. Most telling is the sustained nature of this trend—81 games provides robust sample size, and the consistency of underperformance indicates this isn't random variance. The recent 13-game under streak, while now broken by two consecutive overs, demonstrates how dramatically Lindor can disappoint total bases expectations when he's not connecting for extra-base hits. His profile suggests a player who accumulates singles but lacks the consistent power stroke needed to regularly clear inflated total bases numbers. The 62% under rate over this extended period creates a clear mathematical edge that sophisticated bettors should exploit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 62% under rate and +17.9% ROI create a sustainable edge, but the recent two-game over streak and lack of situational data prevent a stronger conviction play. Target this prop when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, where Lindor's singles-heavy approach becomes most profitable. Main risk is a hot streak where his doubles and home runs spike temporarily.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Francisco Lindor props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Francisco Lindor's Total Bases prop record all games?
Francisco Lindor's total bases prop record shows 31 overs and 50 unders across 81 games, translating to just 38.3% overs. This 62% under rate has generated a +17.9% ROI for under bettors while crushing over backers with -26.9% losses.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Francisco Lindor Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Francisco Lindor's total bases props. His 62% under rate and +17.9% ROI over 81 games creates a mathematical edge. Target lines of 2.5+ where his singles-heavy approach provides maximum value against inflated expectations.
What's Francisco Lindor's average Total Bases all games?
Francisco Lindor averages 1.94 total bases per game, sitting 0.4 bases below the typical 2.34 line. This consistent underperformance relative to market expectations has created sustained value for under bettors across an 81-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Lindor total bases unders when lines reach 2.5 or higher, where his singles-focused profile creates maximum edge. Avoid during hot streaks or after extended under runs when books might temporarily deflate the number below his true baseline.