Francisco Lindor's hits props present a compelling under opportunity with just 30% overs in his last 10 games, averaging 1.3 hits against typical 1.6 lines. The under trend has generated +33.6% ROI while overs hemorrhaged -42.7%. Lean Under with medium conviction on this sustained pattern.
Expert Analysis
Lindor's recent hitting struggles reflect a concerning shift from his typically reliable contact profile. The 0.3 hit deficit per game against standard lines isn't marginal variance—it represents a fundamental change in his approach or effectiveness. September baseball often exposes fatigue in everyday players, and Lindor's 162-game grind as the Mets' primary shortstop appears to be manifesting in reduced barrel contact and timing issues. The 70% under rate across 10 games suggests this isn't random fluctuation but a measurable decline in his ability to consistently find holes. Most telling is the sustainability of this trend—even during his longest over streak of just two games, he quickly reverted to the under pattern. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his current form, creating consistent value on unders. His recent three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, suggesting oddsmakers are still pricing him closer to his season-long averages rather than his current diminished production. This type of late-season regression often persists through season's end as accumulated wear takes its toll.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate combined with +33.6% ROI creates legitimate value, especially when books haven't adjusted lines to reflect Lindor's current 1.3 hit average. Target this when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, as the 0.3 differential provides meaningful cushion. Primary risk is positive regression to his career norms, but late-season fatigue patterns suggest this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Francisco Lindor's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Francisco Lindor went over his hits prop in just 3 of his last 10 games (30% rate), going under 7 times. His 3-7-0 record shows a clear under trend with no pushes during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Francisco Lindor Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Francisco Lindor's hits props. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders shows clear value, especially when lines are set at 1.5 or higher given his 1.3 average.
What's Francisco Lindor's average Hits last 10 games?
Francisco Lindor averaged 1.3 hits over his last 10 games, which is 0.3 hits below the typical 1.6 line. This significant deficit per game creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lindor hits unders when lines are 1.5+ and he's facing quality pitching or in day games after night games. Late-season fatigue makes unders most valuable in September/October when accumulated wear shows.