Fernando Tatis Jr.'s hits props have been dramatically underperforming, going 2-8-0 over/under with just a 20.0% over rate in his last 10 games. His 1.1 average sits 0.6 hits below the typical 1.7 line, creating a clear under opportunity with +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Fernando Tatis Jr.'s recent hitting struggles represent a significant departure from his established production levels, with his 1.1 hits per game average falling well short of standard expectations. The 20.0% over rate across 10 games isn't just bad luck—it reflects a sustained period where Tatis Jr. has consistently failed to reach his projected output. The -0.6 differential between his performance and the betting line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form, creating exploitable value on the under. Most telling is the streak data showing his longest under run reached 6 games, indicating this isn't random variance but a persistent trend. The -61.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently betting against Tatis Jr.'s inflated lines has been profitable. While elite talents like Tatis Jr. typically regress toward their career norms, the sample size here is substantial enough to suggest either underlying mechanical issues, lingering injury effects, or simply a cold streak that hasn't run its course. The betting market's slow adjustment to his diminished production creates a window where under bets maintain positive expected value until the lines properly reflect his current output level.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Tatis Jr.'s sustained underperformance over 10 games creates exploitable value on hits unders, particularly when lines remain elevated around 1.5-1.7. The +52.7% under ROI and consistent failure to reach projections outweigh regression concerns in the short term. Primary risk is an immediate return to form that could quickly eliminate the edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Hits prop record last 10 games?
Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his hits props in the last 10 games, hitting the over just 20.0% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance with only 2 games exceeding expectations versus 8 falling short.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Fernando Tatis Jr.'s hits props. His 1.1 average is 0.6 hits below typical lines, and the 80% under rate with +52.7% ROI shows clear value. Target unders when lines remain at 1.5 or higher.
What's Fernando Tatis Jr.'s average Hits last 10 games?
Fernando Tatis Jr. is averaging 1.1 hits per game over his last 10 contests, which is 0.6 hits below the standard 1.7 line. This substantial deficit indicates his current production is well below market expectations and betting projections.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fernando Tatis Jr. hits unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, especially during his current cold streak. The best opportunities arise when oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his recent struggles, maintaining inflated expectations despite consistent underperformance.