Eugenio Suárez's home run props present one of the season's most reliable under plays, hitting just 18.1% overs across 94 games with a devastating -0.3 average differential. The Diamondbacks third baseman's power has cratered in 2024, making the under a strong lean in most situations.
Expert Analysis
Eugenio Suárez's power collapse in 2024 represents a fundamental shift that books haven't fully adjusted to. His 0.21 home runs per game average sits 59% below the typical 0.51 line, creating consistent value on unders. The 16-game under streak earlier this season wasn't an anomaly—it reflected Suárez's diminished bat speed and launch angle optimization issues. At 33, age-related decline appears to be accelerating, particularly evident in his reduced hard contact rates and elevated ground ball percentage. The sample size of 94 games eliminates small-sample concerns, while the -65.5% over ROI demonstrates how dramatically oddsmakers have overvalued his remaining pop. Arizona's offensive approach has also shifted more contact-oriented, reducing Suárez's opportunities for mistake pitches in hitter's counts. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency—even his longest over streak maxed at just two games, suggesting any power surges are immediately unsustainable. The underlying metrics support continued regression, as Suárez's exit velocity and barrel rate remain well below his career norms. This isn't variance; it's a player whose power tool has genuinely deteriorated.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Suárez's 18.1% over rate across 94 games represents legitimate skill decline, not bad luck. The -0.3 differential is massive in home run props, where books typically price efficiently. Target unders especially in pitcher-friendly parks or against quality stuff, where his diminished bat speed becomes most exploitable. Main risk is a brief hot streak, but even his peak stretches have been limited.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Eugenio Suárez's Home Runs prop record all games?
Eugenio Suárez went 17-77-0 on home run overs in 2024, hitting just 18.1% across 94 games. His under record of 77-17 generated +56.4% ROI, making it one of the season's most profitable trends for disciplined bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Eugenio Suárez Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Suárez home run props with high confidence. His 0.21 average versus 0.51 typical lines creates a -0.3 differential that's unsustainable for books. The 94-game sample eliminates variance concerns—this represents genuine skill decline.
What's Eugenio Suárez's average Home Runs all games?
Suárez averaged 0.21 home runs per game in 2024, sitting 0.3 below the typical 0.51 line. This 59% shortfall represents one of the largest negative differentials among qualified players, creating consistent under value throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Suárez home run unders in pitcher-friendly environments and against quality stuff where his diminished bat speed is most exposed. Avoid after rare multi-hit games when books might temporarily adjust lines lower, reducing edge.