Ernie Clement's Total Bases props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 21.4% overs across 14 games with a devastating -0.7 differential from the typical 2.14 line. The Blue Jays utility player averages only 1.43 total bases per game, making the under a strong lean.
Expert Analysis
Ernie Clement's Total Bases props reveal a systematic market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. The 21.4% over rate across 14 games isn't just poor luck—it reflects Clement's role as a light-hitting utility player who prioritizes contact over power. His 1.43 total bases average falls significantly short of the standard 2.14 line, creating a consistent 0.7-base cushion for under bettors. The -59.1% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't properly adjusted to Clement's offensive limitations. This isn't a player who suddenly develops extra-base hit power; he's a defensive specialist whose offensive profile remains remarkably consistent. The longest under streak of 8 games demonstrates the sustainability of this trend, while the current 1-game over streak likely represents temporary variance rather than meaningful change. Clement's approach focuses on making contact and getting on base rather than driving the ball, which naturally suppresses his total bases output. The market appears to be pricing him based on position or team context rather than his actual offensive production, creating this exploitable edge that should persist given his established role and skill set.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Clement's consistent failure to reach inflated total bases lines creates a profitable opportunity, particularly when the line sits at 2.0 or higher. The -0.7 differential provides meaningful cushion, and his role as a contact-first utility player suggests this trend should continue. Main risk involves small sample size and potential lineup changes that could alter his offensive approach or playing time.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ernie Clement's Total Bases prop record all games?
Ernie Clement's Total Bases prop record stands at 3-11-0 over/under across 14 games, hitting just 21.4% overs. He averages 1.43 total bases per game against a typical line of 2.14, creating a significant -0.7 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ernie Clement Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Ernie Clement's Total Bases props. His 21.4% over rate and -0.7 average differential create a clear edge for under bettors, with the trend showing remarkable consistency across his 14-game sample size.
What's Ernie Clement's average Total Bases all games?
Ernie Clement averages 1.43 total bases per game across 14 contests, falling 0.7 bases short of the typical 2.14 line. This substantial gap explains why unders have hit 78.6% of the time with a +50.0% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ernie Clement Total Bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, maximizing the value from his consistent underperformance. His role as a contact-first utility player makes these props most profitable during regular season games.