Ernie Clement's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 2-8-0 with just a 20.0% over rate across his last 10 games. His 0.2 average sits 0.3 homers below the typical 0.5 line, generating a robust 52.7% ROI on unders. This represents a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Ernie Clement's power drought reflects the harsh reality of a utility infielder's offensive profile in today's game. His 0.2 home run average over this 10-game sample tells the story of a player whose primary value lies in defensive versatility rather than offensive production. The -0.3 differential between his actual output and the standard 0.5 line suggests oddsmakers are overvaluing his power potential, likely influenced by small sample noise or positional adjustments. Clement's role as a bench piece and spot starter limits his at-bats and reduces his exposure to favorable counts that generate home runs. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates consistent market inefficiency, as books appear slow to adjust lines downward for players in Clement's tier. His longest under streak of five games highlights the sustainability of this trend, while the brief one-game over streak shows these props can still hit occasionally. The lack of meaningful splits data actually reinforces the underlying theme - Clement simply doesn't generate enough consistent playing time or offensive opportunities to sustain power production. This trend should persist as long as he remains in a utility role with sporadic starts and limited plate appearances against quality pitching.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ernie Clement's utility role and limited offensive upside make the under on home run props an attractive play, supported by his 2-8-0 record and 52.7% under ROI. The ideal betting spot comes when books offer the standard 0.5 line, creating immediate value given his 0.2 average. The main risk is variance in a small sample, but his role and skill set suggest this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ernie Clement's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Ernie Clement has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of over bets. He's managed only 2 total home runs across this stretch, well below market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ernie Clement Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Ernie Clement's home runs. His 2-8-0 record and 52.7% under ROI make this a clear edge play, especially when books offer the standard 0.5 line against his 0.2 average output.
What's Ernie Clement's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Ernie Clement has averaged 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games, sitting 0.3 below the typical 0.5 line. This significant gap between performance and market pricing creates consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ernie Clement home run unders when he's in a utility role with limited starts. The best spots come against quality pitching staffs when books maintain the standard 0.5 line despite his reduced offensive role.