Ernie Clement's home run props present a stark under opportunity with just 14.3% overs across 14 games and a brutal -0.4 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. The numbers scream contact hitter, not power threat, making this one of the cleaner under plays in baseball props.
Expert Analysis
Ernie Clement's home run production tells the story of a utility infielder operating well outside his power wheelhouse when books set him at 0.5 homers. His 0.14 average represents a massive 72% gap below the betting line, creating sustainable value for under bettors. The 63.6% ROI on unders reflects this fundamental mismatch between perception and reality. Clement's profile screams contact over power - he's built his career on defensive versatility and putting the ball in play, not launching moonshots. The 9-game under streak within this sample isn't an anomaly but rather the natural result of a player whose swing mechanics and approach prioritize contact over lift. Toronto's lineup construction often slots Clement in situations where his job is to advance runners and make contact, not swing for the fences. The concerning element for under bettors is sample size, but Clement's career trajectory and skill set suggest this isn't variance but rather books consistently overestimating his power output. His swing generates ground balls and line drives, not the launch angle needed for consistent home run production. The gap between his actual production and the betting line creates a textbook case of market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 0.4 differential between Clement's production and the line is enormous in baseball terms, representing a fundamental misread of his skill set. Books consistently overvalue his power potential while his contact-first approach generates predictable results. The primary risk is small sample variance, but his career profile suggests this trend reflects ability rather than luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ernie Clement's Home Runs prop record all games?
Clement's home run prop record shows 2-12-0 over/under across 14 games, hitting just 14.3% overs. He's averaged 0.14 home runs per game against the standard 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ernie Clement Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Clement's home run props with high confidence. His 0.14 average creates a massive gap below the 0.5 line, while his contact-first approach and defensive utility role make consistent power production unlikely given his skill set.
What's Ernie Clement's average Home Runs all games?
Clement averages 0.14 home runs per game, sitting 0.4 below the typical 0.5 betting line. This 72% gap represents one of the larger differentials in baseball props, indicating books consistently overestimate his power potential relative to actual production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Clement home run unders when he's batting in contact situations or facing quality pitching that emphasizes his role as a situational hitter. His utility role and ground ball approach create consistent under value regardless of specific matchup conditions.