Fade UNDER
3-7 O/U Record
30.0% Over Rate
-4.3u Units Won
-42.7% ROI
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Ernie Clement's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going just 3-7 over his last 10 games with a brutal 30% over rate. The Blue Jays utility man is averaging 0.9 hits against a typical 1.2 line, creating a -0.3 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear lean under situation.

Expert Analysis

Ernie Clement's hitting struggles over this 10-game sample reveal a player caught between roles and expectations. The 0.9 hits average against 1.2 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished offensive output, creating persistent value on the under. His current five-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose bat has gone cold, likely due to irregular playing time and pressure to contribute across multiple positions. Clement's utility role means inconsistent at-bats and rhythm, factors that directly impact hit accumulation. The 30% over rate across 10 games provides sufficient sample size to identify a legitimate trend, especially when supported by the negative differential between actual performance and market expectations. The absence of split data actually strengthens the under case, as it suggests consistent struggles regardless of matchup context. When a player shows this level of systematic underperformance with clear underlying factors, the trend typically persists until either playing time increases significantly or the market fully adjusts. Clement's situation suggests neither catalyst is imminent, making this a sustainable edge for disciplined under bettors.

Betting Verdict

LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Clement's 0.9 hits average creates clear value against standard 1.2 lines, supported by five consecutive unders and a 70% under rate over 10 games. The utility role and inconsistent playing time provide fundamental reasons for continued struggles. Main risk is potential lineup changes or increased opportunity, but current trends favor continued underperformance in hits props.

3 OVERS (30.0%)
7 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 10 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2024-09-27 OPP 1.5 1.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-09-06 OPP 1.5 1.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-08-28 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-08-11 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-07-09 OPP 2.5 1.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-06-14 OPP 1.5 2.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-06-07 OPP 0.5 0.0 -0.5 UNDER
2024-05-31 OPP 2.5 1.0 -1.5 UNDER
2024-05-21 OPP 0.5 1.0 +0.5 OVER
2024-04-14 OPP 0.5 2.0 +1.5 OVER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 50.0% Over
Away 0.0% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 0.0% Over
Last 10 30.0% Over

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Ernie Clement's Hits prop record last 10 games?

Ernie Clement has gone 3-7 on hits overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's currently on a five-game under streak, with his longest over streak being just two games during this sample.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ernie Clement Hits last 10 games?

Bet under on Clement's hits props. His 0.9 average against typical 1.2 lines creates clear value, supported by 70% under rate and five consecutive unders. The trend shows no signs of reversing given his utility role.

What's Ernie Clement's average Hits last 10 games?

Clement averages 0.9 hits over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.2 line, creating a significant -0.3 differential. This gap between performance and market expectations provides consistent under value for sharp bettors.

How reliable is this trend?

Target Clement hits unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, especially during his current cold streak. His utility role and inconsistent playing time make him most vulnerable when expectations exceed his recent 0.9 average.

Methodology: This analysis covers 10 games from 2024-04-14 to 2024-09-27. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.