Edouard Julien's Total Bases props at Target Field present one of the sharpest under edges in baseball, hitting just 16.7% of overs across 36 home games with a devastating 21-game under streak currently active. The Twins second baseman averages 0.92 total bases against a typical 1.94 line, creating consistent value on unders with +59.1% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Julien's home struggles stem from a perfect storm of factors that create predictable underperformance. Target Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions and Minnesota's aggressive shift positioning limit his extra-base opportunities, while his contact-oriented approach generates weak ground balls that rarely find gaps. The 21-game under streak isn't random variance—it reflects systematic issues with his swing mechanics at home, where he's pressing to perform in front of familiar crowds. His .220 home batting average suggests timing problems against familiar AL Central pitching, particularly fastballs up in the zone where he's vulnerable. The -1.0 differential between his actual production and betting lines indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home park struggles. Most concerning for over bettors is Julien's inability to string together quality at-bats, often settling for weak contact rather than working counts. His plate discipline metrics show increased chase rates at home, leading to poor contact quality and fewer hard-hit balls that generate multiple bases. The consistency of this underperformance across different opponents and game situations suggests a legitimate home park disadvantage rather than temporary regression.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Julien's home Total Bases props offer exceptional value with a 21-game under streak backed by legitimate mechanical and environmental factors. Target this when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, particularly against quality pitching staffs. The primary risk is a potential hot streak breaking the pattern, but his underlying contact quality suggests continued struggles ahead.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Edouard Julien's Total Bases prop record home games?
Edouard Julien's Total Bases record in home games is historically poor at 6-30-0 over/under (16.7% overs), with an active 21-game under streak that represents one of the most consistent prop trends in baseball this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Edouard Julien Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Julien's Total Bases props at home with high confidence. His 0.92 average against typical 1.94 lines creates consistent value, supported by environmental factors and mechanical struggles that show no signs of immediate correction.
What's Edouard Julien's average Total Bases home games?
Julien averages just 0.92 total bases per home game, running a full base below typical betting lines of 1.94. This -1.0 differential represents significant value for under bettors across his 36-game home sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Julien's Total Bases unders when lines are 1.5 or higher at Target Field, especially against quality pitching staffs. Avoid when he's facing weak bullpens or in potential blowout spots where garbage-time at-bats could inflate totals.