Edouard Julien's total bases prop presents one of the strongest under trends in baseball, hitting just 22.2% overs across 54 games with a devastating -0.9 differential below the typical 1.8 line. The Twins second baseman's 9-game under streak and historically poor over rate make this a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Julien's total bases struggles stem from fundamental offensive limitations that sportsbooks consistently overvalue. His 0.93 average sits nearly a full base below standard pricing, indicating either chronic line inflation or legitimate power deficiencies that persist across situations. The 18-game under streak within this sample reveals systematic issues rather than random variance. Contact-first middle infielders like Julien often face inflated expectations based on positional assumptions rather than actual production metrics. His plate approach likely emphasizes getting on base over extra-base hits, creating a structural mismatch with total bases betting markets. The absence of meaningful splits data suggests consistency in his limitations across different matchups and conditions. Most concerning for over bettors is the trend's persistence—78% under rate over 54 games indicates this isn't temporary regression but rather market inefficiency. The current 9-game under streak, while potentially due for variance correction, aligns with his season-long profile. Sportsbooks appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating continued value on unders until his approach fundamentally changes or books properly recalibrate expectations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Julien's 78% under rate and massive -0.9 differential represent exceptional market inefficiency that shows no signs of correction. Target this prop when lines remain at 1.5+ total bases, particularly in standard matchups where books haven't made significant adjustments. The primary risk is variance-driven regression, but his consistent approach and the market's slow adaptation make this a premium systematic play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Edouard Julien's Total Bases prop record all games?
Julien's total bases record stands at 12-42-0 over/under across 54 games, translating to just 22.2% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in baseball, with unders hitting at nearly an 80% clip throughout his sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Edouard Julien Total Bases all games?
Bet UNDER on Julien's total bases props with high confidence. His 78% under rate and -0.9 differential below typical lines create exceptional value. This systematic edge shows no signs of market correction, making it a premium fade opportunity.
What's Edouard Julien's average Total Bases all games?
Julien averages 0.93 total bases per game compared to the standard 1.8 line, creating a massive -0.9 differential. This gap indicates either severe line inflation or fundamental power limitations that sportsbooks haven't properly adjusted for in their pricing models.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Julien's total bases unders when lines remain at 1.5+ bases, particularly in standard matchups without extreme pitcher advantages. The market's slow adjustment to his limitations creates consistent value, especially during his current 9-game under streak momentum.