Edouard Julien's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 94.4% of home games with a devastating 2-34-0 record. The Twins second baseman averages just 0.11 home runs per home game against a typical 0.5 line, creating massive value on the under with +80.3% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Edouard Julien's home run futility at Target Field stems from a perfect storm of factors working against his power production. The left-handed hitter faces significant challenges in Minnesota's ballpark, which historically suppresses left-handed power with its dimensions and wind patterns. Julien's contact-oriented approach generates a low fly ball rate, and his modest exit velocities rarely translate to home runs in his home environment. The sample size of 36 games spanning over a year demonstrates remarkable consistency in this trend, with only two home runs total at Target Field. His current 26-game home run drought at home isn't an aberration but rather the norm for his profile. The -0.4 differential between his actual production and the betting line represents a fundamental mispricing by oddsmakers who haven't fully adjusted to Julien's specific home/road power splits. While regression is always possible in baseball, Julien's underlying metrics suggest this trend has strong foundational support rather than being purely variance-driven.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Edouard Julien's home run under at Target Field represents elite betting value with an 80.3% ROI backed by overwhelming statistical evidence. The 94.4% under rate across 36 games isn't fluky—it reflects genuine skill and ballpark mismatches. Target any home games where the line sits at 0.5, as Julien's 0.11 average creates massive expected value. The primary risk is a hot streak or favorable matchup against extreme fly ball pitchers, but the trend's consistency suggests even those scenarios rarely overcome his home power limitations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Edouard Julien's Home Runs prop record home games?
Edouard Julien has gone 2-34-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting the over just 5.6% of the time. He's averaged only 0.11 home runs per home game with a current 26-game home run drought at Target Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Edouard Julien Home Runs home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Julien's 94.4% under rate and +80.3% ROI on unders at home creates exceptional value. His contact approach and Target Field's left-handed power suppression make overs extremely unlikely at standard 0.5 lines.
What's Edouard Julien's average Home Runs home games?
Edouard Julien averages 0.11 home runs per home game, creating a massive -0.4 differential against typical 0.5 betting lines. This represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and market pricing in baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target any home games with 0.5+ home run lines for maximum value. Avoid betting when Julien faces extreme fly ball pitchers or in potential blowout spots where he might see extra at-bats, though even these scenarios rarely overcome his home power deficiency.