Edouard Julien's home hitting props present a compelling under opportunity, going under in 67% of games (24-12 record) with a massive -0.7 differential between his 0.53 average and typical 1.19 lines. The Twins second baseman has been particularly cold at Target Field, making unders the clear play.
Expert Analysis
Edouard Julien's home hitting struggles reveal a player whose contact issues become magnified in familiar surroundings. His 0.53 hits per game at Target Field represents a dramatic underperformance against standard 1.19 lines, creating consistent value on unders. The 67% under rate isn't a small sample fluke—it's backed by 36 games spanning over a year, suggesting a legitimate home/road split worth exploiting. Julien's approach appears poorly suited to Target Field's dimensions and conditions, as his swing-and-miss tendencies get exposed against familiar American League Central pitching. The eight-game under streak highlights how pronounced this trend has become, while his longest over streak maxing out at just two games shows the consistency of his home hitting woes. Most concerning for over bettors is how the differential has remained stable across different lineup positions and matchup types. When books continue setting lines near 1.19 for a player averaging barely half that production at home, the mathematical edge becomes undeniable. Julien's home hitting props represent one of those rare situations where the market hasn't fully adjusted to a clear pattern, creating sustainable value for disciplined under bettors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Julien's 67% under rate at home combined with a staggering -0.7 differential creates exceptional value when books post lines around 1.19. Target this prop when he's facing quality pitching or in day games where his contact issues typically worsen. The main risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but his eight-game under run suggests this trend has legs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Edouard Julien's Hits prop record home games?
Julien's home hits props show a clear under trend with a 12-24-0 record, hitting the over in just 33.3% of games. He's averaging 0.53 hits per game at Target Field across 36 games from 2023-2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Edouard Julien Hits home games?
Bet the under on Julien's hits props at home games. His 67% under rate and -0.7 differential from typical lines create strong value, especially with books still posting lines around 1.19 despite his poor home production.
What's Edouard Julien's average Hits home games?
Julien averages 0.53 hits per home game, significantly below the typical 1.19 line set by sportsbooks. This -0.7 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations in baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Julien's home hits unders against quality starting pitching or in day games when his contact issues typically worsen. Avoid when he's facing struggling pitchers or in favorable hitting conditions like humid evening games.