Edouard Julien's hits props present a compelling under opportunity with just 35.2% overs across 54 games. The Twins second baseman averages 0.59 hits against a typical 1.07 line, creating a massive -0.48 differential that has generated +23.7% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of a player whose hit production consistently falls short of market expectations. Julien's 0.59 hits per game average represents a fundamental disconnect with the betting market, which typically sets his line around 1.07 hits. This isn't marginal variance—it's a systematic pattern spanning over 50 games that suggests either persistent market mispricing or genuine limitations in Julien's hit-generating ability. The 19-35 over-under record translates to covering the under 64.8% of the time, a rate that would be unsustainable if purely random. His current two-game under streak pales compared to his longest under run of seven games, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to his actual production levels. The -32.8% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning for anyone considering the over, while the +23.7% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability. Without meaningful splits data to identify vulnerable spots for overs, the trend appears robust across various game situations. The persistence of this pattern suggests structural factors—whether related to his approach, role in the lineup, or the types of pitching he faces—rather than temporary slumps.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 64.8% under rate and +23.7% ROI create a sustainable edge, though the sample size demands caution against overconfidence. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.0 or higher, as Julien's 0.59 average provides maximum value. The primary risk is positive regression, but 54 games suggest this reflects his true talent level rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Edouard Julien's Hits prop record all games?
Edouard Julien's hits prop shows a 19-35 record across 54 games, with overs hitting just 35.2% of the time. This translates to unders cashing 64.8% of the time, generating a strong +23.7% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Edouard Julien Hits all games?
Bet under on Edouard Julien's hits props. His 0.59 average against typical 1.07 lines creates consistent value, with unders hitting 64.8% of the time and producing +23.7% ROI across 54 games.
What's Edouard Julien's average Hits all games?
Edouard Julien averages 0.59 hits per game compared to his typical 1.07 line, creating a significant -0.48 differential. This gap has proven consistent across 54 games, making unders the profitable side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Julien's hits unders when the line is set at 1.0 or higher, maximizing the value from his 0.59 average. All game situations appear favorable given the lack of meaningful splits showing over-friendly conditions.