Edmundo Sosa's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over a 10-game sample with a brutal -0.9 differential from the typical 1.8 line. The Phillies shortstop is currently riding a four-game under streak, making the under the clear play.
Expert Analysis
Edmundo Sosa's total bases struggles stem from his role as Philadelphia's defensive-minded shortstop rather than a primary offensive weapon. His 0.9 average against a 1.8 line represents a massive 50% shortfall that reflects both his contact-oriented approach and limited power output. The 30% over rate across 10 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers who may be overrating his spot in the Phillies' potent lineup. Sosa's current four-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of failing to reach inflated total bases numbers. His role as a table-setter rather than run producer means he's more likely to collect singles and walks than the extra-base hits needed to clear 1.8 total bases consistently. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose props are consistently mispriced upward, likely due to the halo effect of playing for an elite offensive team. Without significant changes to his approach or role, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Sosa's 0.9 average against typical 1.8 lines creates consistent value on unders, supported by his defensive role limiting offensive upside. The four-game under streak and 70% under hit rate make this a profitable fade opportunity. Main risk is lineup protection potentially creating better hitting situations, but his contact-first profile suggests limited ceiling regardless of circumstances.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Edmundo Sosa's Total Bases prop record all games?
Sosa has gone 3-7-0 over/under on total bases props across 10 games, hitting just 30% overs. His average of 0.9 total bases falls 0.9 short of the typical 1.8 line, creating a massive differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Edmundo Sosa Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Sosa's total bases props. The 70% under hit rate and +33.6% under ROI make this a clear value play, especially with his current four-game under streak continuing the season-long trend.
What's Edmundo Sosa's average Total Bases all games?
Sosa averages 0.9 total bases per game compared to the typical 1.8 line. This -0.9 differential represents a 50% shortfall, indicating consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers who may overrate his offensive role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sosa total bases unders consistently, as his defensive-first role creates persistent value. The trend appears most reliable when lines are set at 1.8 or higher, where his contact-oriented approach struggles to deliver.