Dominic Canzone's Total Bases props at home present a clear under opportunity with just a 27.3% over rate across 11 games. His 1.18 average sits 1.1 bases below the typical 2.32 line, generating a robust 38.8% ROI on unders while overs have lost nearly half their value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Canzone's home struggles with Total Bases props. His 1.18 average at T-Mobile Park represents a massive 49% shortfall from the standard 2.32 line, creating consistent value on the under. This isn't a small sample fluke—across 11 home games, Canzone has managed just three overs while racking up eight unders, including his current three-game under streak. The -1.1 differential suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his home park limitations. T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions likely contribute to this trend, as the spacious outfield reduces extra-base opportunities that drive Total Bases props over. Canzone's profile as a contact hitter without elite power makes him particularly susceptible to these park effects. The 38.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's consistent overvaluation of his home production. While regression is always possible, the underlying factors—park dimensions, hitting profile, and continued line inflation—suggest this edge has staying power. The fact that his longest over streak spans just two games while unders have reached three indicates the trend's reliability.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Canzone's home Total Bases props offer exceptional value with a 72.7% under rate and nearly 40% ROI. The 1.1-base differential between his average and typical lines creates a significant mathematical edge that books haven't corrected. Target unders when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, particularly against quality pitching where his contact-heavy approach gets neutralized.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dominic Canzone's Total Bases prop record home games?
Canzone's Total Bases record at home is 3-8-0 over/under (27.3% overs) across 11 games from March through July 2024, averaging just 1.18 total bases per home game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dominic Canzone Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Canzone's Total Bases at home. The 72.7% under rate and 38.8% ROI provide exceptional value, especially when lines sit at 2.0 or higher.
What's Dominic Canzone's average Total Bases home games?
Canzone averages 1.18 Total Bases at home, sitting 1.1 bases below the typical 2.32 line—a massive 49% shortfall that creates consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Canzone Total Bases unders at home when facing quality pitching and lines of 2.0+. His contact-heavy approach struggles in T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly confines.