Davis Schneider's home run prop at home presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 16 of 18 games (11.1% over rate) with a devastating -78.8% ROI on overs. His 0.11 home run average sits 0.4 below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
Schneider's home run struggles at Rogers Centre stem from both his swing profile and the ballpark dynamics. His 0.11 home run rate at home represents a player fundamentally mismatched with power expectations, likely reflecting his contact-oriented approach that doesn't translate to consistent home run production. The 9-game under streak within this sample suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic issue with his ability to clear the fence in familiar surroundings. Rogers Centre's dimensions and atmospheric conditions may not suit his particular launch angle tendencies, creating a persistent edge against inflated home run lines. The -78.8% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overvalues his power potential at home, possibly influenced by his surname recognition or small sample hot streaks that don't reflect his true talent level. With only 2 home runs across 18 home games, Schneider appears to be a singles and doubles hitter whose power numbers get artificially boosted by occasional road performances. The lack of recent positive regression despite ample opportunities suggests this trend has staying power rather than being due for a correction.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Schneider's home run prop at Rogers Centre represents exceptional under value, with his 0.11 average creating a massive 0.4 cushion below standard 0.5 lines. The 16-2 under record spans multiple seasons, indicating systematic rather than random underperformance. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, especially in day games where his power deficit becomes more pronounced. The primary risk is a random hot streak, but his underlying metrics support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Davis Schneider's Home Runs prop record home games?
Davis Schneider has gone under his home runs prop in 16 of 18 home games (88.9% under rate) with only 2 total home runs at Rogers Centre. His 2-16-0 record represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Davis Schneider Home Runs home games?
Bet UNDER on Davis Schneider's home runs props at home with high confidence. His 0.11 average sits well below standard 0.5 lines, and the 88.9% under rate across 18 games indicates systematic underperformance rather than bad luck.
What's Davis Schneider's average Home Runs home games?
Davis Schneider averages 0.11 home runs per game at home compared to the typical 0.5 prop line, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This 78% gap between performance and expectation drives consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis Schneider's home runs under when the line sits at 0.5, particularly in day games at Rogers Centre. His power deficit becomes most pronounced in familiar conditions where atmospheric factors don't provide additional carry.