David Hamilton presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, posting a perfect 0-21-0 record on home run overs at Fenway Park with zero home runs across 21 games. This complete absence of power at home creates a premium betting edge with exceptional consistency.
Expert Analysis
David Hamilton's home run futility at Fenway Park represents a convergence of skill set limitations and ballpark dynamics that creates sustainable betting value. Hamilton profiles as a contact-oriented middle infielder whose game revolves around speed and defensive versatility rather than power production. His swing mechanics and approach prioritize putting the ball in play over driving it for distance, evidenced by his complete absence of home runs across 21 home games spanning over a year. Fenway Park's unique dimensions, while famous for the Green Monster, actually suppress right-handed power in many areas of the ballpark, particularly for gap-to-gap hitters like Hamilton. The 420-foot center field and deep foul territory work against players who lack elite exit velocity. Hamilton's role in Boston's lineup further reinforces this trend—he's deployed for his speed and glove, typically batting in positions where small ball skills matter more than power. The consistency of this trend across different pitching matchups and game situations suggests this isn't variance but rather a fundamental mismatch between Hamilton's skillset and power production expectations. His spray chart likely shows predominantly ground balls and line drives to the gaps, the antithesis of home run swing patterns.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hamilton's complete absence of home run power at Fenway creates one of baseball's most reliable prop bets. The 0-21-0 record reflects genuine skill limitations rather than bad luck, making this trend highly sustainable. Bet the under in any home game where the line sits at 0.5, with ideal conditions being day games against quality pitching where Hamilton faces pressure to make contact rather than hunt for power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Hamilton's Home Runs prop record home games?
David Hamilton is 0-21-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting zero home runs across 21 games at Fenway Park from July 2023 through August 2024, creating a perfect under record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Hamilton Home Runs home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Hamilton's complete absence of home run power at home, evidenced by his 0-21 record, makes this one of baseball's most reliable prop bets.
What's David Hamilton's average Home Runs home games?
Hamilton averages 0.0 home runs per home game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential that consistently favors under bettors across his 21-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Hamilton home run unders in any home game, particularly day games against quality pitching where his contact-first approach faces pressure to avoid strikeouts rather than hunt for power.