David Hamilton's hits props show clear under value with just 46.7% overs across 30 games and a -0.23 average differential from the typical 1.3 line. The under trend offers positive 1.8% ROI while overs lose 10.9%, making this a consistent fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
David Hamilton's hits props present a compelling under case built on sustained underperformance against inflated lines. Averaging just 1.07 hits per game against a standard 1.3 line creates a meaningful 0.23 edge that has persisted across 30 games. The 46.7% over rate translates to consistent value on unders, particularly given Hamilton's role as a utility infielder whose playing time and lineup position can vary significantly. His current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of books struggling to properly price his limited offensive ceiling. The -10.9% ROI on overs indicates sharp money consistently fading Hamilton's hit totals, while the positive 1.8% under ROI confirms this isn't just variance but sustainable edge. Hamilton's profile as a defense-first player often batting in the lower third of Boston's order limits his hit opportunities compared to everyday regulars. The consistency of this trend across different opponents and situations suggests books may be overvaluing his hit potential based on limited sample sizes or park factors that don't translate to actual production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hamilton's consistent underperformance against the 1.3 line creates sustainable value on unders, supported by positive ROI and a clear usage pattern that limits his offensive ceiling. The ideal spot comes when lines reach 1.5, though standard 1.3 offerings still provide edge. Main risk is variance in a small sample, but the underlying factors support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Hamilton's Hits prop record all games?
Hamilton's hits props show a 14-16-0 over/under record across 30 games, hitting just 46.7% of overs. This translates to unders cashing 53.3% of the time with positive 1.8% ROI versus -10.9% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Hamilton Hits all games?
Bet under on Hamilton's hits props. His 1.07 average against typical 1.3 lines creates consistent value, supported by 53.3% under success rate and positive ROI. The trend shows sustainability across different matchups and situations.
What's David Hamilton's average Hits all games?
Hamilton averages 1.07 hits per game compared to the standard 1.3 line, creating a -0.23 differential that consistently favors unders. This gap represents the core value proposition in fading his hit totals across various betting markets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hamilton hits unders when lines reach 1.5 for maximum value, though standard 1.3 offerings still provide edge. Avoid after extended hitting streaks or against weaker pitching staffs where variance could temporarily inflate his production.