David Fry's home run prop at home games presents a massive under opportunity with just 3 overs in 22 games (13.6% hit rate). Averaging 0.14 home runs against a 0.5 line creates a -0.4 differential that's generated +64.9% ROI on unders. This is a strong fade-the-power play.
Expert Analysis
David Fry's home run struggles at Progressive Field represent one of baseball's most reliable under trends, rooted in both ballpark factors and player profile mismatches. Cleveland's stadium ranks among the most pitcher-friendly for home runs, with its deep dimensions and lake-effect winds frequently suppressing power numbers. Fry's contact-over-power approach compounds this issue - he's a utility player who prioritizes making contact rather than driving balls out of the yard. The 11-game under streak within this sample isn't an outlier but rather reflects his true talent level in home run production. His 0.14 average at home sits dramatically below even conservative 0.5 lines, suggesting books are still overvaluing his occasional pop. The trend shows remarkable consistency without meaningful regression signs, as Fry's batted ball profile and Progressive Field's dimensions create a perfect storm for under results. Most concerning for over bettors is the lack of situational variance - whether facing lefties, righties, or different game states, Fry simply doesn't elevate enough balls to clear Cleveland's expansive outfield. This isn't a hot streak or small sample fluke; it's a fundamental mismatch between player skills and environmental factors that creates sustainable betting value.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The combination of Progressive Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions and Fry's contact-first approach creates an exploitable market inefficiency. Target this prop when lines sit at 0.5, especially against ground ball pitchers who further suppress his already minimal power output. The primary risk is a random mistake pitch that Fry accidentally golfs out, but his 13.6% over rate suggests even that scenario is uncommon enough to maintain profitable under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Fry's Home Runs prop record home games?
David Fry has hit just 3 overs in 22 home games for a 13.6% success rate on home run props. His 3-19 record represents one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball, generating exceptional value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Fry Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER on David Fry's home run props with high confidence. His 13.6% over rate and +64.9% under ROI make this one of baseball's most reliable fade opportunities, especially at pitcher-friendly Progressive Field.
What's David Fry's average Home Runs home games?
David Fry averages just 0.14 home runs per game at home, creating a massive -0.4 differential against typical 0.5 lines. This gap represents the core value proposition that's generated consistent under profits throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target David Fry home run unders when he faces ground ball pitchers or when lines remain at 0.5 despite his poor home power numbers. Progressive Field's dimensions make any home game an ideal spot to fade his power output.