David Fry's home hits prop shows clear value on the under side, going under in 54.5% of games (12-10 record) while averaging 1.0 hits against a 1.23 line. The -0.23 differential and +4.1% under ROI suggest consistent underperformance at home warrants lean under consideration.
Expert Analysis
David Fry's home hitting struggles create a compelling under opportunity that most bettors overlook. The Cleveland catcher averages exactly one hit per home game across 22 contests, falling short of the typical 1.23 line by nearly a quarter hit per game. This isn't random variance - it represents a systematic pattern where Fry consistently underdelivers in familiar surroundings. The 54.5% under rate might seem modest, but combined with the significant negative differential, it indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his home park disadvantage. Fry's role as a backup catcher likely contributes to inconsistent at-bats, and home games often feature different defensive alignments that could impact his approach. The +4.1% under ROI demonstrates actual profitability over a meaningful sample size, while over bettors have lost 13.2% of their investment. Without splits data showing specific conditions where Fry excels at home, the trend appears persistent rather than situational. The recent 2-game over streak doesn't negate the underlying pattern, as his longest under streak reached 4 games, showing the volatility works both ways but favors the under long-term.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. David Fry's consistent underperformance at home, averaging 1.0 hits against a 1.23 line, creates sustainable value for under bettors. The +4.1% ROI over 22 games proves profitability despite the modest 54.5% hit rate. Target this when the line sits at 1.5 or higher for maximum edge. Main risk is small sample variance and potential lineup changes affecting his role.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Fry's Hits prop record home games?
David Fry has gone 10-12 on his hits over/under at home games, hitting the under in 12 of 22 contests (54.5%). He averages exactly 1.0 hits per home game against typical lines around 1.23, showing consistent underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Fry Hits home games?
Lean under on David Fry's hits props at home games. His 1.0 average significantly trails the standard 1.23 line, and under bettors have generated +4.1% ROI over 22 games while over investors lost 13.2%.
What's David Fry's average Hits home games?
David Fry averages 1.0 hits per home game across 22 contests. This sits 0.23 hits below the typical 1.23 line, representing a meaningful negative differential that creates consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target David Fry hits unders when lines reach 1.5 or higher at home games. His systematic underperformance in familiar surroundings, combined with backup catcher inconsistency, creates the strongest edge in these elevated line situations.