Daulton Varsho has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, going just 2-8 on overs with a brutal 20.0% hit rate. Averaging only 1.3 total bases against a 2.9 line creates a massive -1.6 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear under trend with strong statistical backing.
Expert Analysis
Varsho's total bases collapse represents one of the most reliable under trends in recent baseball betting. The 1.3 average against a 2.9 line isn't just bad luck—it's a 55.2% shortfall that suggests fundamental issues with his offensive approach. The 20.0% over rate across 10 games provides legitimate sample size credibility, while the -61.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has overvalued his production. Most telling is the streak data showing his longest over streak maxed at just one game, while he's strung together multiple under runs including a three-game drought. This pattern indicates Varsho is either dealing with an underlying mechanical issue, facing particularly tough pitching matchups, or experiencing the kind of prolonged slump that creates betting value. The consistency of the underperformance—hitting under in 80% of games—suggests this isn't random variance but a measurable trend that sharp bettors can exploit. The market appears slow to adjust his lines downward, creating continued value on the under until we see concrete evidence of offensive improvement.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Varsho's 20.0% over rate and -1.6 differential from his line create clear statistical value on the under, but the sample size prevents high confidence. Target unders when his line stays at 2.5 or higher, as the market seems reluctant to fully adjust for his recent struggles. Main risk is positive regression—elite athletes don't typically sustain 80% failure rates indefinitely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daulton Varsho's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Varsho has gone 2-8 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of his overs. He's averaging only 1.3 total bases against a typical 2.9 line, creating a -1.6 differential that represents systematic underperformance across this recent sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daulton Varsho Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Varsho's total bases props. His 20.0% over rate and -1.6 average differential from the line create clear statistical value. Target unders when his line stays at 2.5 or higher, as the market appears slow to adjust for his struggles.
What's Daulton Varsho's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Varsho is averaging just 1.3 total bases over his last 10 games compared to his typical 2.9 line. This -1.6 differential represents a 55.2% shortfall from expectations, indicating significant underperformance that creates measurable betting value on the under side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Varsho total bases unders when his line remains at 2.5 or higher, as the market seems reluctant to fully adjust. Avoid betting when lines drop to 1.5 or lower, as that removes the edge. Best opportunities come early in series before books make corrections.