Daulton Varsho has delivered severe under value in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time while averaging 0.6 hits against a 1.1 line. The -0.5 differential and +33.6% under ROI signal a clear exploitable trend favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Daulton Varsho's hitting struggles over this 10-game sample reveal a player operating well below market expectations. His 0.6 hits per game average sits a full half-hit below the typical 1.1 line, creating consistent value on the under that sharp bettors have capitalized on to the tune of 33.6% ROI. The 3-7 over/under record isn't just bad luck—it represents a fundamental disconnect between Varsho's current offensive output and bookmaker pricing. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance. Varsho isn't alternating between big games and quiet ones; he's grinding out a steady diet of 0-1 hit performances that repeatedly fall short of inflated expectations. The current two-game under streak, following a previous three-game under run, suggests this isn't variance but rather a player whose contact quality and approach have deteriorated. Without additional context on matchup data or underlying metrics, the raw performance gap becomes the primary signal. Bookmakers appear slow to adjust their lines downward, creating a persistent edge for under bettors willing to fade a struggling hitter whose recent form contradicts his pricing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The half-hit gap between Varsho's 0.6 average and typical 1.1 lines creates recurring value, supported by the 70% under hit rate and strong under ROI. Target this play when lines remain at 1+ hits, as the market hasn't fully adjusted to his current offensive struggles. Main risk is sample size regression, but the consistency of underperformance suggests sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Hits Prop Lines
Compare Daulton Varsho props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daulton Varsho's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Daulton Varsho has gone 3-7 over/under on his hits prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance that has created consistent value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daulton Varsho Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Daulton Varsho's hits props. His 0.6 average against 1.1 lines and 70% under success rate show clear market inefficiency. The +33.6% under ROI confirms this as a profitable fade opportunity.
What's Daulton Varsho's average Hits last 10 games?
Daulton Varsho is averaging 0.6 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting a full half-hit below the typical 1.1 line. This substantial gap represents the core value proposition for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Varsho hits unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, as the market hasn't adjusted to his current struggles. Avoid when lines drop to 0.5, as the value disappears and variance increases significantly.