Dansby Swanson's total bases prop presents one of the season's most reliable under trends, hitting just 32.6% overs across 132 games with a devastating -0.6 differential from the typical 2.08 line. This Cubs shortstop consistently underperforms expectations, generating exceptional under value with +28.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Swanson's total bases struggles stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and reality. His 1.48 average sits dramatically below the standard 2.08 line, suggesting oddsmakers consistently overvalue his offensive output. The 23-game under streak represents the longest sustained underperformance in the dataset, indicating systemic issues rather than temporary slumps. His 43-89 record translates to nearly 70% under hits, a remarkably consistent pattern that shows minimal regression despite the extended sample size. The Cubs' offensive struggles as a team likely compound Swanson's individual limitations, creating fewer RBI opportunities and reducing his multi-base hit frequency. His defensive-first profile means contact quality often suffers, leading to more singles than extra-base hits. The market appears slow to adjust to Swanson's actual production level, maintaining inflated lines that create consistent value on the under. This persistence across 132 games suggests structural rather than variance-driven underperformance, making regression unlikely without significant changes to his approach or team context.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Swanson's total bases under represents elite betting value with 70% hit rate and +28.7% ROI over a substantial 132-game sample. The -0.6 differential from typical lines creates consistent edge opportunities. Target standard 2+ total bases lines where the market hasn't adjusted to his 1.48 reality. Primary risk is potential lineup changes or extended hot streaks, but the pattern's persistence suggests minimal regression concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dansby Swanson's Total Bases prop record all games?
Swanson's total bases record shows 43 overs and 89 unders across 132 games, hitting just 32.6% overs. This 70% under rate represents one of the season's most reliable prop trends with consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dansby Swanson Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Swanson's total bases with high confidence. His 1.48 average sits 0.6 bases below typical lines, creating 70% under hit rate and +28.7% ROI over 132 games of consistent underperformance.
What's Dansby Swanson's average Total Bases all games?
Swanson averages 1.48 total bases per game compared to the typical 2.08 line, creating a substantial -0.6 differential. This gap represents the core value driver behind his exceptional under performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target any standard total bases line of 2+ for Swanson, as his 1.48 average creates consistent value. Avoid reduced lines below 1.5, and monitor for potential adjustments after his sustained underperformance.