Danny Jansen's total bases prop shows a clear under bias at home, hitting just 33.3% overs across 12 games with a brutal -0.7 differential from the standard 2.0 line. The under delivers +27.3% ROI while overs hemorrhage -36.4%, creating a compelling fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Jansen's offensive limitations in familiar surroundings at Rogers Centre. Averaging just 1.33 total bases against a 2.0 line represents a massive 33.5% shortfall that suggests either consistent market overvaluation or genuine home struggles. This isn't marginal underperformance - it's systematic failure to reach reasonable expectations. The current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, indicating this isn't random variance but a persistent trend. What's particularly striking is the consistency of the underperformance across the sample period spanning nearly a full calendar year. Catchers often face unique challenges with the physical demands of their position, and Jansen's home struggles could reflect fatigue factors or mechanical issues that become more pronounced in extended home stands. The -36.4% ROI on overs represents catastrophic losses for anyone backing Jansen to exceed modest expectations, while under backers have been rewarded handsomely. Without opposing split data or recent hot streaks to suggest regression, this trend appears sustainable. The market continues setting lines around 2.0 total bases, seemingly ignoring Jansen's documented home struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jansen's consistent home underperformance creates value on the under, particularly when lines sit at 2.0 or higher. The 67% under rate and strong ROI suggest market inefficiency, though the limited 12-game sample prevents high confidence. Target spots where Jansen faces quality pitching or in day games following night games when fatigue factors amplify.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Danny Jansen props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Danny Jansen's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jansen is 4-8-0 over/under on total bases props in home games, hitting just 33.3% overs. He averages 1.33 total bases against typical 2.0 lines, creating a -0.7 differential that strongly favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Danny Jansen Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jansen's total bases at home. The 67% under rate and +27.3% ROI provide clear value, especially when lines reach 2.0. His consistent underperformance suggests market overvaluation of his home offensive capabilities.
What's Danny Jansen's average Total Bases home games?
Jansen averages 1.33 total bases in home games, significantly below the standard 2.0 line. This 0.67 base shortfall represents a 33.5% underperformance, indicating either systematic struggles or persistent market mispricing favoring under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jansen total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games following night games. Lines at 2.0 or higher provide optimal value given his 1.33 home average and documented struggles in familiar surroundings.