Danny Jansen's away Total Bases props show marginal over value at 54.5% (6-5-0 record) with a slight edge in ROI (+4.1% over vs -13.2% under). However, his 1.73 average falls just short of typical 1.77 lines, creating a narrow margin for profit. Lean under given recent four-game cold streak.
Expert Analysis
Danny Jansen's away Total Bases performance reveals a catcher caught between modest upside and concerning consistency issues. His 54.5% over rate across 11 road games suggests slight positive variance, but the underlying numbers tell a more complex story. Jansen's 1.73 road average consistently trails the 1.77 line books typically set, indicating oddsmakers have properly calibrated his away performance. The +4.1% ROI on overs stems primarily from occasional multi-hit games that push him over modest lines, while his -13.2% under ROI reflects the juice working against bettors on a player who frequently lands right at his number. The current four-game under streak aligns with Jansen's road profile as a player who struggles to consistently reach base multiple times per game away from Toronto's hitter-friendly confines. Road catchers historically face additional challenges from unfamiliar pitching staffs and ballpark dimensions, factors that appear to impact Jansen's offensive output. His Total Bases production lacks the consistency needed for reliable over betting, as even modest 1.5 or 2.5 lines become challenging when facing quality road pitching. The narrow differential between his average and typical lines suggests books have identified his true road talent level, making sustained profitability difficult regardless of recent variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jansen's 1.73 road average consistently falling short of 1.77 lines provides the clearest edge, supported by his current four-game under streak and the structural challenges catchers face on the road. Target games where his line sits at 1.5 or higher against quality pitching staffs. The main risk is variance-driven hot streaks that can quickly erase profits, but his underlying road performance suggests regression toward continued under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Danny Jansen's Total Bases prop record away games?
Danny Jansen has gone 6-5-0 on Total Bases overs in away games, hitting 54.5% over a sample of 11 games. His road average of 1.73 Total Bases falls short of the typical 1.77 line by 0.04 bases per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Danny Jansen Total Bases away games?
Lean under on Danny Jansen's Total Bases in away games. His 1.73 road average consistently trails typical lines, he's currently on a four-game under streak, and catchers historically struggle more on the road against unfamiliar pitching.
What's Danny Jansen's average Total Bases away games?
Danny Jansen averages 1.73 Total Bases in away games compared to typical lines of 1.77, creating a -0.04 differential. This consistent shortfall provides the foundation for targeting under bets when his line reaches 1.5 or higher.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Danny Jansen Total Bases unders when his line sits at 1.5 or higher in road games against quality pitching staffs. Avoid betting during hot streaks, and focus on games where he faces unfamiliar pitchers in pitcher-friendly ballparks.