Corbin Burnes has hit the over in exactly half his last 10 starts with a 5-5 record, averaging 6.4 strikeouts against a typical 6.1 line. The minimal 0.3 differential and poor ROI across both sides suggest this market is efficiently priced with no clear edge.
Expert Analysis
Burnes's strikeout props present a classic case of market efficiency, with his 50% over rate reflecting the true randomness in short-term strikeout variance. The ace right-hander's 6.4 average sits just 0.3 strikeouts above typical lines, indicating oddsmakers have accurately captured his current form and ability. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5% each) confirms the juice is eating into any perceived edge. Burnes's strikeout totals are heavily matchup-dependent, varying based on opposing lineup quality, ballpark factors, and his pitch efficiency dictating innings pitched. His current two-game over streak follows a three-game under run, highlighting the volatility inherent in strikeout props. Without significant splits data showing exploitable patterns against specific opponent types or in particular conditions, this trend lacks the predictive power needed for profitable betting. The sample size, while respectable at 10 games, doesn't reveal any systematic bias in line-setting that sharp bettors can exploit consistently.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market where the sportsbooks have accurately captured Burnes's strikeout potential. Without clear splits showing exploitable matchup advantages or situational edges, this prop lacks the systematic bias needed for profitable long-term betting. Focus on games with specific favorable conditions rather than blindly following this neutral trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Strikeouts Prop Lines
Compare Corbin Burnes props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Corbin Burnes's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Corbin Burnes has gone over his strikeouts prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 starts for a 50% success rate. He's averaging 6.4 strikeouts per game against typical lines around 6.1, showing minimal edge either direction.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Corbin Burnes Strikeouts last 10 games?
Pass on Burnes strikeout props based on this trend. The 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market with no exploitable edge. Wait for specific matchup advantages instead.
What's Corbin Burnes's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Burnes is averaging 6.4 strikeouts over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines around 6.1. This modest 0.3 differential suggests oddsmakers have accurately captured his current strikeout rate and form.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burnes strikeout overs against weak contact teams with high strikeout rates, particularly in favorable pitcher's parks. Avoid betting this prop in neutral matchups where the market appears efficiently priced based on recent trends.