Connor Wong's home Total Bases props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 30.4% of overs across 23 games with a -0.5 average differential to the line. The Red Sox catcher's 1.91 home average consistently falls short of typical 2.37 lines, creating profitable under conditions.
Expert Analysis
Wong's home struggles stem from Fenway Park's unique dimensions working against his contact profile. As a catcher with limited power upside, Wong relies heavily on doubles and triples for extra bases, but Fenway's deep left-center field (420 feet) and high Green Monster (37 feet) neutralize many of his gap shots that might find extra bases in other venues. His 1.91 home average reflects consistent single-base production without the explosive multi-base hits needed to exceed inflated lines. The -41.9% over ROI indicates books haven't properly adjusted for Wong's venue-specific limitations, creating systematic value on unders. His recent two-game under streak aligns with season-long patterns, and his longest under streak of five games demonstrates the persistence of this home park disadvantage. Wong's role as a defensive-minded catcher means limited at-bats and conservative approach, further restricting his total bases ceiling in home games where his gap power gets neutralized.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Wong's 30.4% over rate at home represents clear market inefficiency, with books consistently setting lines 0.5 bases above his actual production. Target unders when lines reach 2.5 or higher, especially against quality pitching where Wong's contact-heavy approach gets further limited. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or extra-inning games extending opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Connor Wong's Total Bases prop record home games?
Connor Wong has gone 7-16 on Total Bases overs in home games, hitting just 30.4% with a -41.9% ROI. His under bets show +32.8% ROI across 23 games, demonstrating clear market inefficiency favoring the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Connor Wong Total Bases home games?
Bet UNDER on Connor Wong's Total Bases in home games. His 30.4% over rate and -0.5 average differential create systematic value, especially when lines reach 2.5 or higher at Fenway Park.
What's Connor Wong's average Total Bases home games?
Connor Wong averages 1.91 Total Bases in home games compared to typical lines of 2.37, creating a -0.5 differential. This consistent shortfall makes unders profitable with +32.8% ROI over his 23-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Connor Wong Total Bases unders in home games when lines reach 2.5 or higher, particularly against quality starting pitching. Avoid when he's batting higher in the lineup or in potential high-scoring environments.