Connor Wong's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 1-9-0 with a crushing 90% under rate over his last 10 games. The veteran catcher has averaged just 0.1 home runs against a typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This represents a clear lean under with strong conviction.
Expert Analysis
Wong's power drought reflects the reality of his role as Boston's backup catcher, where inconsistent playing time and situational usage limit his offensive opportunities. The 0.1 average against 0.5 lines creates a fundamental mathematical edge that transcends small sample concerns. His nine-game under streak isn't fluky variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by his profile as a defense-first catcher with minimal pop. Wong's career .105 ISO and 4.7% home run rate suggest this trend has legitimate staying power. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story of a market consistently overvaluing his power potential, likely influenced by Fenway's reputation rather than Wong's actual skill set. While regression toward his career norms is inevitable, those norms still heavily favor the under. The biggest risk is a random hot streak or favorable matchup against a struggling pitcher, but Wong's contact-oriented approach and limited barrel rate make sustained power output unlikely. This isn't a player whose underlying metrics suggest hidden upside—the market appears genuinely mispriced based on role and ability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wong's 90% under rate and -0.4 differential create a legitimate edge rooted in his limited power profile and backup role. The ideal spot is against quality pitching where his contact-first approach gets further neutralized. Main risk is variance catching up in small samples, but his career metrics support continued under performance on standard 0.5 lines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Connor Wong's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Connor Wong has gone 1-9-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once for a brutal 10% success rate. Under bettors have cashed 90% of the time with a +71.8% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Connor Wong Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Connor Wong's home runs. His 0.1 average against 0.5 lines creates a -0.4 differential, and his nine-game under streak reflects genuine limitations as a backup catcher with minimal power rather than bad luck.
What's Connor Wong's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Wong has averaged just 0.1 home runs over his last 10 games compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This gap reflects his role limitations and contact-oriented approach rather than temporary struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wong's home run unders against quality pitching when his contact-first approach faces additional challenges. Avoid spots where he's facing struggling relievers or in hitter-friendly conditions that might create variance.