Connor Wong's home run prop at home presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 20 of 23 games (87.0% under rate). With just 3 total homers across 23 home contests and averaging 0.13 per game against typical 0.5 lines, the under offers exceptional value with +66.0% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Connor Wong's home run futility at Fenway Park represents a convergence of player profile and ballpark dynamics that creates sustainable betting value. The Red Sox catcher has managed just 3 home runs across 23 home games, a microscopic 0.13 per game average that sits 74% below standard 0.5 prop lines. This isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance rooted in Wong's contact-oriented approach and Fenway's unique dimensions. While the Green Monster aids left-handed power, Wong's right-handed swing profile struggles with Fenway's deep right field and foul territory that turns potential homers into outs. His 13.0% over rate reflects genuine skill limitations rather than bad luck, supported by a career-long pattern of modest power output. The 10-game under streak within this sample demonstrates the trend's persistence, while the longest over streak of just 1 game shows how rare his power spikes truly are. Even accounting for potential regression, Wong's contact-first approach and Fenway's dimensions create a structural disadvantage that standard lines haven't adequately priced. The -75.1% ROI on overs tells the story—this is a player whose home run props consistently offer inflated expectations relative to actual production capability.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Connor Wong's 87.0% under rate at home isn't fluky—it's the natural result of a contact hitter facing Fenway's challenging right field dimensions. The 0.37 home run deficit per game creates massive value on under bets, especially with standard 0.5 lines. Target this prop when Wong faces quality pitching or in day games when Fenway's shadows further suppress offense.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Connor Wong's Home Runs prop record home games?
Connor Wong's home run prop record in home games stands at 3-20-0 over/under, meaning he's gone under the line in 20 of 23 games (87.0% under rate). This represents one of the most consistent under trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Connor Wong Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Connor Wong's home run props at home games. The 87.0% under rate and +66.0% ROI provide exceptional value, especially with his 0.13 average sitting well below typical 0.5 lines. This trend shows strong persistence.
What's Connor Wong's average Home Runs home games?
Connor Wong averages 0.13 home runs per home game, creating a massive 0.37 deficit against standard 0.5 prop lines. This 74% shortfall reflects genuine power limitations rather than temporary struggles, making unders consistently valuable.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Connor Wong home run unders during day games at Fenway when shadows suppress offense, or when he faces quality starting pitching. His contact-oriented approach struggles most against Fenway's dimensions in these challenging conditions.