Cole Ragans presents a perfectly balanced strikeout profile over his last 10 starts, hitting exactly 6.9 strikeouts per game against a 6.9 average line. While the over rate sits at just 40%, the under side has generated positive ROI at +14.6%, making it the clear value play.
Expert Analysis
Ragans's recent strikeout performance reveals a pitcher operating within tight parameters, but the market hasn't fully adjusted to his current form. The 40% over rate masks a more nuanced story — when Ragans goes over, he tends to do so modestly, while his under performances often feature significant shortfalls that drive the positive under ROI. The perfectly matched 6.9 average suggests oddsmakers have his baseline correct, but they may be overvaluing his ceiling in individual games. Ragans's strikeout consistency has actually worked against over bettors, as he rarely delivers the explosive performances needed to overcome juice on inflated lines. His current two-game under streak aligns with a pattern where he alternates between modest over and significant under performances. The lack of available split data limits deeper analysis, but the raw numbers suggest a pitcher whose strikeout output has become more predictable and conservative. This type of consistency often emerges when pitchers prioritize command over pure stuff, leading to steady but unspectacular strikeout totals. The negative over ROI of -23.6% indicates the market consistently overprices his strikeout ceiling, creating systematic value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +14.6% under ROI combined with the current two-game under streak creates a compelling value proposition on Ragans strikeout unders. While his 6.9 average matches the typical line, the consistent over losses suggest the market overvalues his strikeout upside. Target under bets when lines sit at 7.0 or higher, as Ragans rarely delivers the dominant performances needed to clear elevated totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Strikeouts Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cole Ragans's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Ragans has gone 4-6-0 on strikeout overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaged exactly 6.9 strikeouts per start against comparable 6.9 lines, showing remarkable consistency but limited upside for over bettors seeking explosive performances.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cole Ragans Strikeouts last 10 games?
Bet under on Ragans strikeout props. The under side has generated +14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%, and he's currently on a two-game under streak. His consistent but ceiling-limited approach makes unders the clear value play.
What's Cole Ragans's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Ragans has averaged exactly 6.9 strikeouts over his last 10 starts, perfectly matching his typical 6.9 line. This zero differential suggests he's hitting his baseline consistently but rarely exceeding expectations, which explains the poor over performance and strong under ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ragans strikeout unders when lines reach 7.0 or higher, as he rarely clears elevated totals. His current form favors conservative pitching over dominant strikeout performances, making unders particularly valuable when the market overprices his ceiling.