Cody Bellinger's home run props present a stark underdog story with just 18 overs in 119 games (15.1% rate). His 0.17 average sits a massive 0.36 runs below typical lines, creating a 62.0% ROI goldmine on unders. This is a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Cody Bellinger's home run production has been systematically overvalued by oddsmakers, creating one of the most reliable prop betting edges in baseball. His 0.17 home runs per game average represents a dramatic departure from the power stroke that once made him an MVP candidate. The 15.1% over rate across 119 games isn't just poor—it's historically bad for a player still receiving inflated lines based on past reputation. Bellinger's current 11-game under streak extends a pattern of sustained power decline that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. The -0.36 differential between his actual production and typical lines suggests books are pricing him as if he's still the 47-home run slugger from 2019, not the contact-oriented player he's become. His longest over streak of just 2 games versus a 23-game under streak reveals how rare his power surges have become. This isn't variance—it's a fundamental shift in approach and ability that creates consistent value on the under. The 62.0% ROI on unders validates this as a systematic edge rather than temporary regression.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bellinger's home run props represent one of baseball's most mispriced markets, with oddsmakers clinging to outdated power expectations. The 15.1% over rate and massive -0.36 production differential create systematic value on unders. Target this prop consistently across all game situations, as the edge appears universal and persistent.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cody Bellinger's Home Runs prop record all games?
Bellinger's home run props show an 18-101-0 record over 119 games, hitting just 15.1% overs. This represents one of the worst over rates for any regularly-tracked player prop in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cody Bellinger Home Runs all games?
Bet the UNDER consistently. With a 15.1% over rate and 62.0% ROI on unders, this represents systematic value. Bellinger's power decline hasn't been properly priced into his lines.
What's Cody Bellinger's average Home Runs all games?
Bellinger averages 0.17 home runs per game versus typical lines around 0.53, creating a massive -0.36 differential. He's producing roughly one-third of what oddsmakers expect based on historical reputation.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Bellinger home run unders in all situations—the edge appears universal. Focus on games where lines remain inflated above 0.5, as the gap between expectation and reality creates maximum value.