Cody Bellinger's hits prop shows a clear under bias with just 44.1% overs across 118 games, producing a profitable +6.8% ROI on unders. His 1.03 average sits 0.1 hits below typical lines, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Bellinger's hits prop reveals a systematic underperformance that extends beyond normal variance. His 52-66 under record across 118 games represents a statistically significant edge, particularly when considering the -15.9% ROI destruction on overs versus the profitable +6.8% return on unders. The 1.03 average against 1.12 lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to Bellinger's contact consistency issues. This trend likely stems from Bellinger's approach changes since his MVP seasons - he's become more of a power-over-contact hitter, leading to increased strikeouts and reduced hit frequency. The current five-game under streak fits the broader pattern, though his longest under streak of 11 games shows this trend can extend significantly. The absence of meaningful positive stretches (longest over streak just six games) indicates this isn't cyclical but reflects a fundamental shift in Bellinger's offensive profile. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating persistent value for under bettors who recognize Bellinger's reduced hit tool compared to his peak years.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bellinger's systematic underperformance creates legitimate value, evidenced by the profitable under ROI and consistent average shortfall. The trend appears sustainable given his changed approach prioritizing power over contact. Primary risk is positive regression if he adjusts his swing mechanics, but the 118-game sample suggests this reflects his current skill set rather than temporary slump.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cody Bellinger's Hits prop record all games?
Bellinger's hits prop record shows 52 overs and 66 unders across 118 games, hitting the over just 44.1% of the time. This represents a significant under bias that has persisted across multiple seasons and situations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cody Bellinger Hits all games?
Bet under on Bellinger's hits props. The data shows clear value with +6.8% ROI on unders versus -15.9% losses on overs. His 1.03 average consistently falls short of typical lines, creating sustainable edge.
What's Cody Bellinger's average Hits all games?
Bellinger averages 1.03 hits per game across the 118-game sample, which runs 0.1 hits below the typical 1.12 line. This consistent shortfall creates the foundation for profitable under betting over the long term.
How reliable is this trend?
The under trend appears consistent across all situations given the broad sample size. Focus on games where lines are set at 1.1 or higher, as Bellinger's 1.03 average creates maximum value against inflated expectations.