Cedric Mullins has been a total bases under machine at Camden Yards, hitting just 29.4% overs across 51 home games with a brutal -0.9 differential from his typical line. Currently riding 13 straight unders, this represents one of baseball's most reliable prop trends. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a crystal clear picture of Cedric Mullins struggling to generate power at home. His 1.06 average total bases sits nearly a full base below typical betting lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his Camden Yards struggles. This isn't a small sample fluke—51 games represents significant data showing consistent underperformance. The 13-game under streak indicates this trend has accelerated recently, which could signal either a mechanical issue or simply that Mullins performs better on the road. What makes this particularly compelling is the massive gap between expectation and reality. A -0.9 differential means bettors backing unders are getting nearly a full base of cushion every game. The 34.8% ROI on unders demonstrates real profit potential, while the -43.9% over ROI shows how costly it's been to bet against this trend. The lack of any meaningful hot streaks (longest over streak just 7 games) suggests this isn't about variance but a genuine home/road split in Mullins's performance profile.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 29.4% over rate and -0.9 differential create genuine value, especially with Mullins currently on a 13-game under streak. However, regression is always possible with such extreme trends, and we lack recent context about his current form or underlying metrics. Best spots are when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, giving maximum cushion for his 1.06 home average.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Mullins's Total Bases prop record home games?
Cedric Mullins has gone under his total bases prop in 36 of 51 home games (70.6% under rate) with just 15 overs. His current streak of 13 consecutive unders represents his longest stretch in either direction during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Mullins Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Cedric Mullins total bases at home games. The 70.6% under rate, -0.9 average differential, and 34.8% ROI create clear value, especially during his current 13-game under streak.
What's Cedric Mullins's average Total Bases home games?
Cedric Mullins averages 1.06 total bases in home games compared to his typical betting line of 1.93. This -0.9 differential means he consistently falls short of expectations by nearly a full base per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cedric Mullins total bases unders when the line is 1.5 or higher at Camden Yards. His 1.06 home average provides maximum cushion against elevated lines, especially given his current 13-game under streak.