Cedric Mullins presents a compelling under opportunity in away games, hitting the over just 36.0% of the time with an 18-32 record. His 1.28 average falls 0.8 bases short of the typical 2.06 line, generating +22.2% ROI on unders. This represents a clear lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Cedric Mullins's road struggles create a systematic betting edge that appears structural rather than fluky. His 1.28 total bases average away from Camden Yards suggests he faces a meaningful disadvantage without familiar surroundings and home crowd support. The 0.8 differential between his performance and the betting line indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for this split, creating consistent value on unders. The 36.0% over rate across 50 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the +22.2% ROI on unders demonstrates real profit potential. Mullins's current two-game under streak aligns with his broader pattern, and his longest under streak of nine games shows this trend can persist. The absence of a corresponding home/road power differential in the data suggests this isn't purely about ballpark dimensions but rather comfort level and routine disruption. Road fatigue, unfamiliar pitching backgrounds, and the general challenges of away performance appear to consistently limit Mullins's extra-base opportunities, making this a sustainable edge rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mullins's consistent underperformance away from Baltimore creates a reliable betting angle, with his 1.28 average sitting well below typical lines. The ideal spot comes when the total bases line sits at 2.0 or higher, maximizing the gap between expectation and reality. The primary risk involves positive regression, but 50 games suggests this represents genuine skill-based disadvantage rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Mullins's Total Bases prop record away games?
Cedric Mullins has gone 18-32 on total bases overs in away games, hitting just 36.0% of overs across 50 road contests. This translates to a 64.0% under rate with a profitable +22.2% ROI on under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Mullins Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Cedric Mullins total bases in away games. His 1.28 road average consistently falls short of typical 2.0+ lines, creating systematic value. Focus on games where the line sits at 2.0 or higher for maximum edge.
What's Cedric Mullins's average Total Bases away games?
Mullins averages 1.28 total bases in away games compared to the typical 2.06 line, creating a significant 0.8 differential. This gap represents the core edge, as he consistently underperforms oddsmaker expectations on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target away games when Mullins faces quality pitching or the total bases line sits at 2.0 or higher. His road struggles are most pronounced against stronger opponents, and higher lines maximize the value differential.