Cedric Mullins presents one of the most lopsided home run props in baseball, hitting over his line just 9.8% of the time across 102 games with a brutal -0.4 differential from the standard 0.5 line. Currently riding an 11-game under streak, this represents a clear systematic under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Cedric Mullins's power decline from his 2021 breakout season. Averaging just 0.11 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line creates a massive -0.4 differential that reflects fundamental changes in his approach and results. The 9.8% over rate isn't just poor—it's historically bad for a player regularly getting home run props. Mullins's current 11-game under streak sits within a broader pattern that included a staggering 29-game under streak, suggesting this isn't variance but a structural shift. The +72.2% ROI on unders demonstrates the market has been slow to adjust to Mullins's diminished power output. His longest over streak of just two games highlights how rarely he strings together power displays. This trend appears sustainable given that power typically doesn't return suddenly at this stage of a career, especially when the underlying metrics show such consistency. The lack of meaningful over stretches suggests betting overs requires near-perfect timing that's impossible to predict, while unders benefit from the overwhelming mathematical edge.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mullins's 9.8% over rate represents a systematic edge that the market hasn't fully corrected. The -0.4 differential from the standard line is enormous in baseball terms, and the 11-game under streak fits the broader pattern rather than suggesting imminent regression. Target this under in all game situations, with the primary risk being the occasional random home run that every hitter can produce.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Mullins's Home Runs prop record all games?
Cedric Mullins has gone over his home run prop just 10 times in 102 games (9.8% rate) while going under 92 times. He averages 0.11 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant gap.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Mullins Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on Mullins's home run props with high confidence. The 9.8% over rate and -0.4 differential from the line represent a clear systematic edge that has produced +72.2% ROI on under bets consistently.
What's Cedric Mullins's average Home Runs all games?
Mullins averages 0.11 home runs per game, which is 0.39 below the standard 0.5 line. This massive differential explains why he's hit over just 10 times in 102 games, making unders extremely profitable.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Mullins home run unders in all situations given the consistent 9.8% over rate. The trend shows no meaningful splits or situational variance, making every game an opportunity to capitalize on this systematic edge.