Cedric Mullins has been a consistent under performer at home, going just 18-33 (35.3%) over his hits prop across 51 games. The Orioles center fielder averages 0.69 hits per home game against a typical 1.17 line, creating a significant -0.48 differential. This represents a clear under lean with strong historical backing.
Expert Analysis
Cedric Mullins's home hitting struggles represent one of the more reliable prop trends in baseball, with under bettors enjoying a robust +23.5% ROI over 51 games. The 0.69 hits per game average against typical 1+ lines creates meaningful value, particularly when considering the consistency of this underperformance. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its persistence across different stretches - Mullins has recorded an 11-game under streak at some point, indicating this isn't just variance but a genuine home park disadvantage. Camden Yards' dimensions and atmospheric conditions may contribute to this pattern, though the primary driver appears to be Mullins's altered approach or comfort level at home versus road venues. The 35.3% over rate across this substantial sample suggests books haven't fully adjusted their lines to reflect this home/road split. While regression is always possible, the magnitude of the differential (-0.48 hits per game) and the consistency across seasons indicates this is more than random fluctuation. The recent single-game under streak provides no meaningful insight given the broader pattern, but the historical 11-game under run demonstrates how prolonged these cold stretches can become at Camden Yards.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Cedric Mullins's home hits props offer exceptional value with a 64.7% win rate and +23.5% ROI over 51 games. The 0.69 average against 1+ lines creates consistent edge, particularly on standard 1.5 hit props where his sub-70% success rate is often priced closer to 50-50. Target games with quality opposing pitching or when the line sits at 1.5, as these amplify the existing home park disadvantage that has proven remarkably persistent.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Mullins's Hits prop record home games?
Cedric Mullins has gone 18-33 on his hits prop overs in home games, hitting just 35.3% of the time. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance at Camden Yards across 51 games, with under bettors enjoying a 64.7% success rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Mullins Hits home games?
Bet under on Cedric Mullins hits props at home games. The data strongly supports this with a +23.5% ROI and 64.7% win rate. His 0.69 hits per game average creates consistent value against typical 1+ lines.
What's Cedric Mullins's average Hits home games?
Cedric Mullins averages 0.69 hits per home game compared to typical prop lines around 1.17. This creates a significant -0.48 differential that has persisted across 51 games, making unders consistently profitable at Camden Yards.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cedric Mullins hits unders at home when facing quality pitching or when the line is set at 1.5 hits. His sub-70% success rate on 1+ hit props makes standard pricing inefficient, especially during day games at Camden Yards.