Cedric Mullins presents a compelling under opportunity with just 40.2% overs across 102 games, falling 0.3 hits below the typical 1.03 line. The Orioles centerfielder's consistent underperformance has generated +14.2% ROI on unders while overs bleed -23.3%. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Cedric Mullins's hits prop represents one of the more reliable under trends in baseball, with his 0.75 average sitting meaningfully below the standard 1.03 line. This isn't a small sample anomaly—across 102 games spanning nearly two seasons, Mullins has consistently failed to meet market expectations. The 40.2% over rate indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his declining contact ability and changed approach at the plate. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the sustainability factor. Mullins's profile suggests a player whose peak years are behind him, making dramatic positive regression unlikely. His swing-and-miss tendencies have increased while his barrel rate has declined, creating a fundamental mismatch between his actual production and betting market perception. The -23.3% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that's been slow to recognize this decline. While streakiness exists in baseball, the consistency of Mullins falling short across different contexts suggests this isn't random variance but a reflection of diminished skills. The equal nine-game streaks in both directions show he can get hot, but the overall trajectory favors continued underperformance relative to inflated lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mullins's sustained underperformance across 102 games creates a legitimate edge against a market that hasn't fully adjusted to his declining contact skills. The 0.3-hit differential below standard lines provides consistent value, particularly when books set him at 1.0+ hits. Primary risk involves hot streaks where his speed can turn weak contact into infield hits, but the overall trend strongly favors continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Mullins's Hits prop record all games?
Cedric Mullins has gone over his hits prop in just 41 of 102 games (40.2%) while going under 61 times. This 41-61-0 record represents a significant market inefficiency favoring under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Mullins Hits all games?
Bet under on Cedric Mullins hits props. His 0.75 average sits well below typical 1.03 lines, generating +14.2% ROI on unders while overs lose -23.3%. The trend spans 102 games with clear sustainability.
What's Cedric Mullins's average Hits all games?
Mullins averages 0.75 hits per game compared to the standard 1.03 betting line, creating a meaningful -0.3 differential. This gap represents the core value proposition for under bettors across his prop markets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mullins hits unders when books set lines at 1.0 or higher, particularly against quality pitching. Avoid during hot streaks, but his declining contact skills make unders the preferred long-term approach.