Casey Schmitt's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.1 average differential. The Giants shortstop is averaging only 1.5 total bases against a typical 2.6 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Casey Schmitt's total bases struggles reflect the harsh reality of a utility player fighting for consistent playing time and offensive rhythm. His 1.5 average against a 2.6 line represents a massive 42% shortfall that suggests books are overvaluing his offensive ceiling. The 4-game under streak isn't just variance—it's systematic underperformance from a player whose .220 batting average and limited extra-base power create a natural ceiling. Schmitt's profile as a defensive-first infielder means his offensive opportunities often come in lower-leverage situations, reducing his chances for multi-hit games that drive total bases props over. The Giants' inconsistent lineup usage compounds this issue, as sporadic starts prevent Schmitt from developing any offensive momentum. Most concerning for over bettors is the complete absence of any hot streaks—his longest over run was just one game, indicating no sustainable offensive upside. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a prop consistently mispriced by books who may be factoring in positional scarcity rather than actual production. This isn't a temporary slump but rather a reflection of Schmitt's true offensive ceiling as a replacement-level hitter.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Schmitt's 20% over rate and -1.1 differential create exceptional under value, particularly when the line sits at 2.5 or higher. The ideal spot is catching him after any rare offensive showing when books might inflate the number. Main risk is reduced playing time affecting sample size, but when he plays, the under has been nearly automatic.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Casey Schmitt's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Casey Schmitt has gone 2-8 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's averaging 1.5 total bases against lines typically set around 2.6, creating a significant -1.1 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Casey Schmitt Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Casey Schmitt's total bases props with high confidence. His 20% over rate and -1.1 average differential create exceptional value, especially when lines are set at 2.5 or higher. The under has hit 80% of the time.
What's Casey Schmitt's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Casey Schmitt is averaging just 1.5 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.6. This -1.1 differential represents a 42% shortfall, indicating books are significantly overvaluing his offensive production ceiling.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Casey Schmitt total bases unders when lines are 2.5 or higher, especially after any rare multi-hit performance when books might overreact. His defensive-first role and inconsistent playing time create natural offensive limitations that books consistently misprice.