Casey Schmitt's Total Bases prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity, with the young shortstop going under in 70% of his road contests (3-7-0 record). Currently riding a six-game under streak with an average of just 1.6 total bases against typical 2.1 lines, this trend shows strong betting value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a pronounced road struggle for Schmitt's offensive production, averaging half a base below standard pricing expectations. This 0.5 differential represents significant market inefficiency, particularly given the consistency of the trend across his limited but telling sample. The current six-game under streak suggests this isn't random variance but rather a systematic issue with Schmitt's away performance. Young players often struggle with road environments due to unfamiliar ballparks, different backgrounds, and travel fatigue affecting timing and approach. The 33.6% ROI on unders demonstrates clear betting value, while the -42.7% ROI on overs shows how punishing the opposite side has been. With no recent uptick in performance and the streak extending deep into the season, regression seems unlikely in the short term. The lack of split data prevents deeper contextual analysis, but the raw performance numbers paint a clear picture of a player who simply hasn't found his road rhythm. This creates an exploitable edge for disciplined bettors willing to fade Schmitt's Total Bases in hostile territory.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate combined with a 0.5 base deficit against market lines creates clear value, especially during this six-game under streak. Target this prop when Schmitt faces quality pitching on the road or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Primary risk is natural regression to the mean, but the consistency of road struggles suggests this edge remains viable for the remainder of the season.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-05-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Casey Schmitt's Total Bases prop record away games?
Casey Schmitt's Total Bases prop in away games shows a 3-7-0 over/under record, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He's currently on a six-game under streak and averages only 1.6 total bases on the road.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Casey Schmitt Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Casey Schmitt's Total Bases in away games. The 70% under rate, six-game streak, and 0.5 base deficit against typical lines create clear value. Focus on road games against quality pitching for maximum edge.
What's Casey Schmitt's average Total Bases away games?
Casey Schmitt averages 1.6 total bases in away games, which runs 0.5 bases below the typical 2.1 line. This significant gap represents the core value in betting his road total bases props under the posted number.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Casey Schmitt Total Bases unders when he's playing away games, especially against quality starting pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His current six-game under streak makes this an ideal time to capitalize on the trend.