Casey Schmitt's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over his last 10 games with a devastating -61.8% ROI on overs. The shortstop is averaging 0.2 home runs against a typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Casey Schmitt's power drought reflects the harsh reality of a utility infielder trying to establish himself in the majors. The 20% over rate isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance driven by his contact-first approach and limited game time. Schmitt's role as a defensive specialist means he often faces tough matchups when he does play, as managers deploy him strategically rather than for offensive production. The -0.3 differential between his actual output and the betting line suggests oddsmakers are still pricing him based on prospect pedigree rather than MLB reality. His current four-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of prioritizing contact over power. The Giants' emphasis on his glove work over bat development further limits his home run upside. While small sample sizes can be misleading, Schmitt's consistent failure to reach even modest power expectations indicates a player whose ceiling is capped by his role and approach. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as books appear slow to adjust to his limited power output in actual game situations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Schmitt's systematic underperformance against home run lines reflects his role reality more than temporary slump. The 80% under rate with strong ROI indicates sustainable edge, especially when books set lines at 0.5. Main risk is increased playing time leading to more favorable matchups, but his contact-first approach limits power ceiling regardless of opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Casey Schmitt props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Casey Schmitt's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Schmitt went 2-8-0 over/under on home run props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% overs with 0.2 home runs per game. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends among active players.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Casey Schmitt Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Schmitt's 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI on unders reflects his role as a contact-first utility player whose power is consistently overvalued by oddsmakers.
What's Casey Schmitt's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Schmitt averaged 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.3 differential. This significant gap indicates his actual power output falls well short of market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, especially against quality pitching where his contact approach becomes even more limiting. Avoid when he faces weak bullpens in high-leverage spots.