Casey Mize has been a strikeout under goldmine in 2024, hitting the under in 10 of 15 games (66.7%) with a robust +27.3% ROI. His 3.73 average consistently falls short of his 4.17 line, creating a sustainable -0.4 differential that screams systematic undervaluation.
Expert Analysis
Casey Mize's strikeout struggles reflect a pitcher caught between rebuilding his arsenal and managing workload concerns following Tommy John surgery. His 3.73 strikeout average against a 4.17 line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in pre-injury production that simply isn't materializing. The Tigers have been cautious with Mize's pitch counts, often pulling him before he can accumulate the strikeout totals needed to clear inflated lines. His current four-game under streak isn't an aberration—it's the continuation of a pattern where his stuff lacks the swing-and-miss quality books expect. The -36.4% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't properly adjusted to Mize's diminished strikeout upside. Detroit's focus on innings management over individual performance metrics means Mize often exits games in favorable strikeout spots, capping his ceiling. The 33.3% over rate across 15 games represents more than small sample noise—it's systematic mispricing. Unless Mize rediscovers his pre-surgery velocity and command, books will continue setting lines based on outdated expectations while sharp bettors capitalize on the under value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Casey Mize's consistent underperformance against his strikeout lines creates legitimate value, particularly when books set totals above 4.0. The ideal spot is early-season games where his pitch count remains restricted and the line reflects optimistic projections. Main risk is a breakout performance that could signal genuine improvement rather than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Casey Mize's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Casey Mize has gone 5-10 on his strikeout props in 2024, hitting the over just 33.3% of the time across 15 games. The under has been profitable with a +27.3% ROI while overs have lost -36.4%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Casey Mize Strikeouts all games?
Bet under on Casey Mize strikeouts. His 3.73 average consistently falls short of typical 4+ lines, and he's hit the under in 10 of 15 games with strong ROI backing the trend.
What's Casey Mize's average Strikeouts all games?
Casey Mize averages 3.73 strikeouts per start in 2024, running 0.44 strikeouts below his typical 4.17 line. This negative differential has created consistent value for under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mize strikeout unders when lines are set at 4.0 or higher, especially in day games or when he's coming off extended rest where pitch counts may be monitored more closely by Detroit's coaching staff.